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good evening ladies and gentlemen and

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welcome to the space telescope science

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institute public lecture series we have

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a special presentation for you tonight

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this is not the first tuesday of the

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month it is actually the last tuesday of

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the month but we have a special workshop

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going on here at space telescope this

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week and

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the organizers of the workshop were

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grateful or gracious enough to be able

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to find one of their speakers who was

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coming to the workshop anyways who's

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also a wonderful public speaker

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and come give us a public talk tonight

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that does not mean we won't have our

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usual may lecture

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next tuesday night bonnie meinke will be

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talking about the making of moons she is

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an expert on saturn and

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i gotta say saturn has some of the

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really coolest moons in the solar system

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all right and she's got some really cool

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stuff to tell us about

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how moons form and how moons interact

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with the rings of saturn all sorts of

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really cool stuff i'm uh i love

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these saturn talks so you're not going

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to want to miss that one that will be

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next tuesday may 6th

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at 8 pm

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and at that time i will do my normal

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news from the universe where i tell you

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the latest discoveries from hubble and

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other missions around

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uh i as always i never bring one of the

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mythographs

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if you did not get a lithograph

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thank you i always forget to bring these

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if you did not get a lithograph they are

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on the table over there pick one up on

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your way out tonight's lithograph is 30

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doradus a turbulent star forming region

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which has a really really cool picture

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on the front and if you want to

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understand a little bit about that

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really cool image turn over on the back

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and we have

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i believe we're allowed 330 words on

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these lithographs because i've written a

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bunch of these lithographs i'm allowed

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exactly you know no more than 330 words

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so as much as we can say about it in 330

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words

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so i won't be doing any of that tonight

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um

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it's raining tonight so we will not have

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our telescope across the street

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duncan watts had sent me an email saying

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hey i'm willing to do it if it's clear

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it's not clear so you'll have to come

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back next week and maybe it'll be clear

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and you can do the observing in the

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telescope across the street

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so we'll go straight to our main feature

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tonight without any delay and our main

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feature is dr david grinspoon uh talking

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on pterosapiens the human chapter in the

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history of earth

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uh dr grinsburg is a visiting scholar at

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the library of congress and he was the

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inaugural chair in astrobiology which

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has some really fancy complex name that

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i didn't bother to memorize

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but he can tell you all about that

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but showing that the field of

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astrobiology which was this melding of

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astronomy and biology and was considered

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kind of funky and crazy about 10 15

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years ago

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is now getting a major respect and is a

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major field and he is one of the leaders

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in it he is also a professor at the

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university of colorado

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now he is involved in a lot of things in

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planetary science he is a co-eye on the

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instrument on the mars rover curiosity

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so his experiment is on mars on the

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surface of mars he is also involved in

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the european space agency's venus

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express which is currently orbiting

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venus so he's got two of the planets

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covered okay um you know by the end of

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his career he'll have the he'll have the

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full suite

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he is a prolific writer

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writing for various magazines including

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doing the

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cosmic relief column for space and

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science sky and telescope

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he is author of several noted books

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which have won various prizes that i

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didn't memorize

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and one of the coolest things is that in

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2006 he was awarded the carl sagan medal

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for public communication of planetary

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sciences

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with that kind of resume you know it's

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gonna be a good talk i'm looking forward

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to it ladies and gentlemen oh i also

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have to note and it's uh oh it says sort

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of cut off he is also i he also uh

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if you want to find out more you can go

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or you can follow him on twitter as dr

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funky spoon

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all right thanks a lot thank you so much

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for coming out tonight i really

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appreciate it especially uh given the

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fact that it's a rainy night here in

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baltimore and um there's

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also an important

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nba playoff game

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and

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the fact that you've chosen to be here

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with me

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i'm gratified and i only ask

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in return that if you know the score you

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don't tell me because i'm going to try

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to watch oh is it it's not on do i need

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to push a button yes

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give me a moment

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now

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did that work

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yeah

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the bulls wizards game don't tell me so

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i can watch it

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later and also a big hello to any of you

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watching

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on the internet tonight hi mom hi dad

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and at least i know those of you

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watching on the web are watching the

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basketball game at the same time

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that's what i'd be doing or you're like

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oh a time out quick let's watch some

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master biology

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all right anyways so pterosan is the

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human chapter in the history of earth

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what am i an astra a mere astrobiologist

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doing talking about this well

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it all began

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when i saw an advertisement for this

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kind of unusual job that was mentioned

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in the introduction a couple years ago i

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saw that there was a new position being

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established for a chair of astrobiology

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in the library of congress jointly

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supported by nasa and the library

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and they were specifically and and that

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kind of caught my attention i said wait

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what what are they talking about a chair

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of astrobiology at the library i've

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never heard of such a thing and then i

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read the fine print and it said they

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were specifically looking for somebody

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to do sustained research at the

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intersection between the science of

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astrobiology and its humanistic and

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societal aspects

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and i thought huh maybe that's an

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opportunity to write that book i've been

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thinking about and had back bernard for

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the last several years

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about human civilization as a sort of

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almost astrophysical or cosmic

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phenomenon and so i already had a

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proposal in the works which i

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reformatted in the proper

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form for this proposal and added some

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other things and sent it in and i was

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very gratified to be selected as the

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inaugural astrobiology chair and

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the title

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of my proposal that i submitted was this

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astrobiology and the anthropocene era

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exploring the potential roles of life

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and intelligence on earth and beyond

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well what are we talking about here so

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astrobiology

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as some of you i'm sure know is the

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scientific study of life in the universe

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so we study

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very carefully the record and history of

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life on earth and the extremes of life

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on earth trying to understand the limits

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and universals of life and we also study

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the environments in the rest of the

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universe to try to extrapolate and

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understand where

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the universe may be life friendly and so

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that's the field of astrobiology the

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anthropocene is a new term

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that is

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becoming to be widely used which i'll

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talk about a lot tonight but it's the

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idea that we in fact have now entered a

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new

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era or phase of geologic history of the

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earth defined by the actions of human

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beings as a major geological force it's

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not a value judgment it's not

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necessarily saying this is good this is

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bad it's just recognizing that if you

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add up what humans are doing now it is

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comparable to the other great forces of

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nature so

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my idea was to look at this

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anthropocene era from an astrobiology

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point of view and that's what i've been

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doing for the last year and i'll

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summarize a little bit of that for you

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this evening

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so

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the anthropocene

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as i said it's the time it's the word

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that's now being used and it's in fact

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been proposed as an official term in the

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geologic time scale that proposal is now

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up for review and being considered but

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it's also come to be widely used whether

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or not it gets officially

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sanctified as as a geological term and

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it's it's the idea is that we've become

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a dominant force of planetary change and

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there are many interesting ways of

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looking at this and one way

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is to look at the different ways we

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measure time we think of geological time

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over here in the left we think of the

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history of life biological time and we

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think of course of history the the

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history of civilization and in a sense

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with the anthropocene we're realizing

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that these have all become braided

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together perhaps irreversibly that in a

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certain sense there may be no more

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history without geology and vice versa

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so

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people have been looking at this and

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there's a lot of data on this and i'm

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not gonna i'm gonna go through this part

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very quickly because it's not my

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goal here to convince you that humans in

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fact

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have become a dominant force i think

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you're probably aware of a lot of this

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but just to summarize

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if you look at so many these are all

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different indicators of human presence

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on earth and certainly if you look at

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your population and things like uh

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damning of rivers what we've been doing

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to the water cycle the hydrological

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cycle of earth here's a weird fact that

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there is now

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more water

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in reservoirs behind dams on earth than

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in all the natural flowing streams and

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rivers on earth by a factor of five or

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six

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more water

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in behind dams so that's not a minor

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effect we've had on the hydrological

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cycle similarly you can look at so many

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of these other indicators and here's

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sort of a funny facetious one mcdonald's

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restaurants but it actually is an

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indicator fertilizer use we're really

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changing the nitrogen cycle of the

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planet with this and

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the interesting thing is that you you

281
00:11:26,630 --> 00:11:23,839
can see a common

282
00:11:27,910 --> 00:11:26,640
form to all of these

283
00:11:29,829 --> 00:11:27,920
you know they're not exactly the same

284
00:11:31,829 --> 00:11:29,839
but you can see a similarity and in

285
00:11:34,550 --> 00:11:31,839
particular there's this big jump

286
00:11:35,670 --> 00:11:34,560
post-war around 1950 and a lot of them

287
00:11:36,870 --> 00:11:35,680
and that's something that scholars of

288
00:11:39,110 --> 00:11:36,880
the anthropocene called the great

289
00:11:40,710 --> 00:11:39,120
acceleration and there's different ideas

290
00:11:42,870 --> 00:11:40,720
as to why that happened but a lot of it

291
00:11:45,269 --> 00:11:42,880
had to do with the sort of suppression

292
00:11:47,750 --> 00:11:45,279
of a lot of activity during the wars and

293
00:11:49,430 --> 00:11:47,760
then the explosion after that so this

294
00:11:51,430 --> 00:11:49,440
these are all indicators of human

295
00:11:52,790 --> 00:11:51,440
presence on the earth and then this next

296
00:11:54,710 --> 00:11:52,800
slide i'll show you one more slide of

297
00:11:57,350 --> 00:11:54,720
data these are all indicators of the

298
00:12:00,550 --> 00:11:57,360
sort of human effects on earth systems

299
00:12:02,949 --> 00:12:00,560
so the obvious ones co2 of course going

300
00:12:04,389 --> 00:12:02,959
up and other atmospheric gases

301
00:12:06,790 --> 00:12:04,399
and um

302
00:12:08,790 --> 00:12:06,800
you know ozone you know about

303
00:12:10,590 --> 00:12:08,800
different climate indicators the number

304
00:12:13,190 --> 00:12:10,600
of great floods

305
00:12:15,110 --> 00:12:13,200
biodiversity changes and again you see a

306
00:12:16,949 --> 00:12:15,120
lot of this sort of you know they're not

307
00:12:18,870 --> 00:12:16,959
identical because there's a complex

308
00:12:21,190 --> 00:12:18,880
system but you see this common form with

309
00:12:23,350 --> 00:12:21,200
a great acceleration in a lot of these

310
00:12:25,509 --> 00:12:23,360
so there's there's really no doubt

311
00:12:28,069 --> 00:12:25,519
that we are having this massive effect

312
00:12:30,310 --> 00:12:28,079
on our planet so what is the context

313
00:12:31,110 --> 00:12:30,320
through which we should think about this

314
00:12:33,350 --> 00:12:31,120
well

315
00:12:36,069 --> 00:12:33,360
as an astrobiologist i'm drawn to

316
00:12:37,430 --> 00:12:36,079
thinking about things in terms of

317
00:12:39,509 --> 00:12:37,440
the really big picture in terms of

318
00:12:41,750 --> 00:12:39,519
cosmic evolution

319
00:12:43,590 --> 00:12:41,760
and by the way uh as was mentioned in

320
00:12:46,150 --> 00:12:43,600
the introduction i'm here this week for

321
00:12:49,350 --> 00:12:46,160
this extraordinary meeting it's been so

322
00:12:50,790 --> 00:12:49,360
interesting it's it's a a workshop here

323
00:12:53,990 --> 00:12:50,800
our symposium here at the space

324
00:12:56,949 --> 00:12:54,000
telescope science institute called

325
00:12:58,470 --> 00:12:56,959
habitable worlds habitable worlds across

326
00:13:00,150 --> 00:12:58,480
time and space

327
00:13:02,389 --> 00:13:00,160
and it's so interesting because people

328
00:13:04,069 --> 00:13:02,399
are talking about all these different

329
00:13:06,550 --> 00:13:04,079
things that are represented here in this

330
00:13:09,030 --> 00:13:06,560
cartoon about galaxy formation star

331
00:13:10,629 --> 00:13:09,040
formation and planet formation and where

332
00:13:13,030 --> 00:13:10,639
you might get life in the universe and

333
00:13:15,269 --> 00:13:13,040
even the evolution of complex life so on

334
00:13:18,550 --> 00:13:15,279
this on this this this is a one-page

335
00:13:21,190 --> 00:13:18,560
cartoon history of the entire

336
00:13:23,030 --> 00:13:21,200
universe but it's meant to point out

337
00:13:23,990 --> 00:13:23,040
when we think of cosmic evolution we

338
00:13:26,629 --> 00:13:24,000
think of

339
00:13:28,949 --> 00:13:26,639
sort of the major transitions that the

340
00:13:31,750 --> 00:13:28,959
universe has gone through especially in

341
00:13:33,990 --> 00:13:31,760
terms of the way matter is organized and

342
00:13:36,310 --> 00:13:34,000
so obviously originally you had the big

343
00:13:37,910 --> 00:13:36,320
bang and they formed galaxies and then

344
00:13:40,150 --> 00:13:37,920
in these magnifying glasses sort of

345
00:13:43,190 --> 00:13:40,160
what's happening on the micro scale so

346
00:13:44,310 --> 00:13:43,200
you start getting the um the galaxies

347
00:13:47,590 --> 00:13:44,320
and stars

348
00:13:48,470 --> 00:13:47,600
give birth to the the elements and then

349
00:13:51,030 --> 00:13:48,480
you get

350
00:13:53,110 --> 00:13:51,040
simple organic molecules in

351
00:13:56,389 --> 00:13:53,120
interstellar clouds and the the

352
00:13:59,030 --> 00:13:56,399
environments around young stars and then

353
00:14:01,030 --> 00:13:59,040
on the surfaces of at least some planets

354
00:14:03,590 --> 00:14:01,040
you get more complex molecules and at

355
00:14:05,750 --> 00:14:03,600
least on one planet we had an origin of

356
00:14:08,069 --> 00:14:05,760
life and then organic molecules

357
00:14:11,269 --> 00:14:08,079
frolicking in the primordial glop of a

358
00:14:13,350 --> 00:14:11,279
young earth and voila here we have the

359
00:14:15,910 --> 00:14:13,360
evolution of complex life and what we so

360
00:14:17,189 --> 00:14:15,920
perhaps vainly call civilization and it

361
00:14:19,110 --> 00:14:17,199
ends here with

362
00:14:20,550 --> 00:14:19,120
question marks and about what's next

363
00:14:23,430 --> 00:14:20,560
because why should we assume that this

364
00:14:25,670 --> 00:14:23,440
is the apotheosis of cosmic evolution

365
00:14:27,990 --> 00:14:25,680
what we've got going on right here but

366
00:14:30,629 --> 00:14:28,000
the other thing i'll point out is that

367
00:14:32,150 --> 00:14:30,639
part of what we're driven to do in

368
00:14:34,389 --> 00:14:32,160
astrobiology

369
00:14:36,550 --> 00:14:34,399
is try to understand how universal these

370
00:14:37,430 --> 00:14:36,560
processes are so everything on the left

371
00:14:39,110 --> 00:14:37,440
side

372
00:14:40,710 --> 00:14:39,120
of this cartoon

373
00:14:44,790 --> 00:14:40,720
is known to be universal there are

374
00:14:46,629 --> 00:14:44,800
galaxies and stars formed everywhere

375
00:14:48,790 --> 00:14:46,639
in the universe and we're driven to

376
00:14:50,949 --> 00:14:48,800
wonder if these things on the right side

377
00:14:53,430 --> 00:14:50,959
are also similarly

378
00:14:55,590 --> 00:14:53,440
phenomena that are widespread and not

379
00:14:58,150 --> 00:14:55,600
just unique to this location now the

380
00:14:59,990 --> 00:14:58,160
great news of course in the last decade

381
00:15:01,189 --> 00:15:00,000
or two is that now we know that planet

382
00:15:04,470 --> 00:15:01,199
formation

383
00:15:06,870 --> 00:15:04,480
is in fact common i would say universal

384
00:15:09,030 --> 00:15:06,880
we didn't know this even really a decade

385
00:15:10,470 --> 00:15:09,040
ago to the way that we know it now with

386
00:15:11,269 --> 00:15:10,480
the wonderful kepler mission and the

387
00:15:12,710 --> 00:15:11,279
other

388
00:15:14,710 --> 00:15:12,720
discoveries you've been hearing about

389
00:15:16,870 --> 00:15:14,720
but now you know when you look up at

390
00:15:18,870 --> 00:15:16,880
night at the stars

391
00:15:20,230 --> 00:15:18,880
that most of them almost all of them

392
00:15:22,069 --> 00:15:20,240
have planets

393
00:15:23,910 --> 00:15:22,079
and a sizable

394
00:15:26,629 --> 00:15:23,920
percentage of them probably have planets

395
00:15:29,590 --> 00:15:26,639
that in some significant ways resemble

396
00:15:31,269 --> 00:15:29,600
our planet so that is new and profound

397
00:15:34,150 --> 00:15:31,279
we're moving some things into this

398
00:15:36,949 --> 00:15:34,160
column of the either that we wonder

399
00:15:38,389 --> 00:15:36,959
about how universal they are to in fact

400
00:15:41,110 --> 00:15:38,399
knowing that they're universal but we're

401
00:15:43,430 --> 00:15:41,120
still on the trail of these last two

402
00:15:46,470 --> 00:15:43,440
developments life and complex life

403
00:15:47,670 --> 00:15:46,480
that's what we're driven to understand

404
00:15:49,829 --> 00:15:47,680
now

405
00:15:53,590 --> 00:15:49,839
the story here locally

406
00:15:56,310 --> 00:15:53,600
began about 4.6 billion years ago with a

407
00:16:00,150 --> 00:15:56,320
process we call accretion

408
00:16:02,310 --> 00:16:00,160
where this disk of dust and gas

409
00:16:03,829 --> 00:16:02,320
around the young sun went through this

410
00:16:06,310 --> 00:16:03,839
process of

411
00:16:08,790 --> 00:16:06,320
of congealing and conglomeration and

412
00:16:10,870 --> 00:16:08,800
falling together of larger and larger

413
00:16:13,030 --> 00:16:10,880
objects and more and more violent

414
00:16:15,110 --> 00:16:13,040
collisions so there was this crashing

415
00:16:16,710 --> 00:16:15,120
and bashing and smashing and the sort of

416
00:16:17,670 --> 00:16:16,720
demolition derby

417
00:16:19,749 --> 00:16:17,680
and that

418
00:16:21,110 --> 00:16:19,759
as as the objects got larger their

419
00:16:23,670 --> 00:16:21,120
gravitational

420
00:16:25,990 --> 00:16:23,680
pull got larger and their forces between

421
00:16:27,990 --> 00:16:26,000
them got larger and the so the final

422
00:16:31,030 --> 00:16:28,000
stage was quite violent collisions

423
00:16:33,189 --> 00:16:31,040
including the the late collision that uh

424
00:16:35,749 --> 00:16:33,199
where a very large object hit the earth

425
00:16:37,749 --> 00:16:35,759
and and splashed material into orbit

426
00:16:39,910 --> 00:16:37,759
which made our moon and that was sort of

427
00:16:42,069 --> 00:16:39,920
the end of accretion really other than

428
00:16:45,189 --> 00:16:42,079
just a little mopping up so it was

429
00:16:46,790 --> 00:16:45,199
really this gravitational accretion that

430
00:16:49,269 --> 00:16:46,800
formed the planets

431
00:16:51,189 --> 00:16:49,279
now i'm going to skip some steps and and

432
00:16:52,949 --> 00:16:51,199
rush ahead about four and a half billion

433
00:16:55,829 --> 00:16:52,959
years but

434
00:16:58,150 --> 00:16:55,839
something remarkable has happened on one

435
00:17:00,069 --> 00:16:58,160
of those planets

436
00:17:02,790 --> 00:17:00,079
if you had been watching earth say you

437
00:17:06,789 --> 00:17:02,800
were a patient alien watching earth for

438
00:17:08,230 --> 00:17:06,799
all these billions of years

439
00:17:10,150 --> 00:17:08,240
you would have noticed

440
00:17:12,470 --> 00:17:10,160
a lot of activity in the interim say you

441
00:17:13,909 --> 00:17:12,480
were watching the night side of earth

442
00:17:15,429 --> 00:17:13,919
it would have been pretty dark

443
00:17:17,029 --> 00:17:15,439
throughout most of that period yeah you

444
00:17:19,990 --> 00:17:17,039
would have seen the occasional flash of

445
00:17:22,390 --> 00:17:20,000
lightning the occasional splash of of

446
00:17:24,710 --> 00:17:22,400
aurora the northern and southern lights

447
00:17:26,870 --> 00:17:24,720
and then more recently in the last few

448
00:17:28,950 --> 00:17:26,880
hundred million years once the

449
00:17:31,190 --> 00:17:28,960
continents got forested you would see

450
00:17:32,470 --> 00:17:31,200
the occasional forest fire

451
00:17:34,310 --> 00:17:32,480
maybe once in a while you'd see a

452
00:17:36,230 --> 00:17:34,320
glowing volcano but in general the night

453
00:17:38,870 --> 00:17:36,240
side would have been very dark and then

454
00:17:40,870 --> 00:17:38,880
very recently

455
00:17:42,789 --> 00:17:40,880
to your alien eyes

456
00:17:43,830 --> 00:17:42,799
something really remarkable would have

457
00:17:44,789 --> 00:17:43,840
happened

458
00:17:47,350 --> 00:17:44,799
and

459
00:17:49,190 --> 00:17:47,360
these networks of lights these glowing

460
00:17:50,950 --> 00:17:49,200
areas would have sprung up first on some

461
00:17:53,270 --> 00:17:50,960
of the coastal areas and then the little

462
00:17:54,950 --> 00:17:53,280
filaments of roads between those

463
00:17:56,870 --> 00:17:54,960
inhabited coastal areas and you would

464
00:18:01,110 --> 00:17:56,880
have said wow something new and

465
00:18:04,710 --> 00:18:01,120
remarkable is happening on this planet

466
00:18:09,750 --> 00:18:07,270
and not only that but if you were a very

467
00:18:11,830 --> 00:18:09,760
observant alien just in the last 50 60

468
00:18:14,789 --> 00:18:11,840
years you would have noticed

469
00:18:18,549 --> 00:18:14,799
a curious anti-accretion

470
00:18:20,950 --> 00:18:18,559
where a few little bits of the planet

471
00:18:22,630 --> 00:18:20,960
started flying back off

472
00:18:24,789 --> 00:18:22,640
out into space

473
00:18:27,590 --> 00:18:24,799
in seeming defiance of the laws of

474
00:18:28,789 --> 00:18:27,600
gravity and going back out to the other

475
00:18:31,510 --> 00:18:28,799
planets

476
00:18:33,510 --> 00:18:31,520
and sending radio signals back and so

477
00:18:35,669 --> 00:18:33,520
it's a curious anti-accretion in two

478
00:18:37,270 --> 00:18:35,679
senses of the word it's curious in that

479
00:18:38,630 --> 00:18:37,280
it would be very strange if you didn't

480
00:18:42,070 --> 00:18:38,640
understand what's going on but it's also

481
00:18:43,750 --> 00:18:42,080
the hallmark of curiosity a species on

482
00:18:45,590 --> 00:18:43,760
this one planet

483
00:18:47,510 --> 00:18:45,600
has started to

484
00:18:49,830 --> 00:18:47,520
send emissaries to the rest of the solar

485
00:18:53,669 --> 00:18:49,840
system asking questions seeking

486
00:18:55,270 --> 00:18:53,679
information about origins and context

487
00:18:56,789 --> 00:18:55,280
so

488
00:18:58,070 --> 00:18:56,799
there's a lot one can say about what

489
00:19:00,950 --> 00:18:58,080
we've learned through comparative

490
00:19:03,750 --> 00:19:00,960
planetology and that's actually

491
00:19:06,390 --> 00:19:03,760
my day job in to the extent that it

492
00:19:09,190 --> 00:19:06,400
could be considered a day job um

493
00:19:11,350 --> 00:19:09,200
and um so to summer up to summarize sort

494
00:19:13,909 --> 00:19:11,360
of a you know life's work in in one

495
00:19:15,669 --> 00:19:13,919
slide one thing we've learned through

496
00:19:18,230 --> 00:19:15,679
through this study in particular through

497
00:19:20,310 --> 00:19:18,240
studying the trio of venus earth and

498
00:19:22,549 --> 00:19:20,320
mars which is very compelling because

499
00:19:24,710 --> 00:19:22,559
these are the two planets that

500
00:19:26,630 --> 00:19:24,720
seem to start out earth-like and then go

501
00:19:28,549 --> 00:19:26,640
off in their own directions what we've

502
00:19:30,070 --> 00:19:28,559
learned is that surprisingly these

503
00:19:31,909 --> 00:19:30,080
planets seem to have very similar

504
00:19:34,710 --> 00:19:31,919
origins in early environments you've

505
00:19:36,150 --> 00:19:34,720
heard all about the early water on mars

506
00:19:38,070 --> 00:19:36,160
we're still learning more about that but

507
00:19:39,830 --> 00:19:38,080
there's a lot of evidence that mars was

508
00:19:42,789 --> 00:19:39,840
a warmer wetter place when it was young

509
00:19:44,549 --> 00:19:42,799
and venus too we think had had oceans

510
00:19:46,230 --> 00:19:44,559
and a sort of warm friendly surface

511
00:19:48,630 --> 00:19:46,240
environment when it was young we've got

512
00:19:50,470 --> 00:19:48,640
to do a lot more exploring to really get

513
00:19:52,710 --> 00:19:50,480
that story straight but that's what we

514
00:19:54,070 --> 00:19:52,720
think they had similar origins and so it

515
00:19:55,909 --> 00:19:54,080
may be that the conditions for the

516
00:19:57,190 --> 00:19:55,919
origin of life

517
00:19:58,150 --> 00:19:57,200
are common

518
00:20:03,110 --> 00:19:58,160
that

519
00:20:05,590 --> 00:20:03,120
start out with similar conditions to

520
00:20:07,029 --> 00:20:05,600
those that on earth seem to facilitate

521
00:20:09,430 --> 00:20:07,039
the origin of life and it may be that

522
00:20:11,510 --> 00:20:09,440
what's rare is the persistence of a

523
00:20:13,430 --> 00:20:11,520
habitable planetary environment over

524
00:20:16,150 --> 00:20:13,440
over cosmological time scales over

525
00:20:17,350 --> 00:20:16,160
billions of years

526
00:20:20,230 --> 00:20:17,360
so

527
00:20:22,630 --> 00:20:20,240
it seems like earth under compared to

528
00:20:24,710 --> 00:20:22,640
its neighbors went down a different path

529
00:20:27,830 --> 00:20:24,720
there was an early divergence an origin

530
00:20:31,029 --> 00:20:27,840
of life which has had profound effects

531
00:20:32,470 --> 00:20:31,039
on the further evolution of the planet

532
00:20:35,110 --> 00:20:32,480
in fact uh

533
00:20:36,070 --> 00:20:35,120
my co my colleague colin goldblad at a

534
00:20:37,669 --> 00:20:36,080
recent

535
00:20:39,830 --> 00:20:37,679
meeting put it this way he said the the

536
00:20:41,669 --> 00:20:39,840
defining characteristic of earth is

537
00:20:43,590 --> 00:20:41,679
planetary scale life

538
00:20:45,830 --> 00:20:43,600
and earth teaches us that habitability

539
00:20:47,350 --> 00:20:45,840
and inhabitants are inseparable in other

540
00:20:49,510 --> 00:20:47,360
words the more we study the earth the

541
00:20:51,510 --> 00:20:49,520
more we realize that earth has

542
00:20:53,669 --> 00:20:51,520
that life has really

543
00:20:55,830 --> 00:20:53,679
got earth in its clutches in a deep way

544
00:20:58,310 --> 00:20:55,840
obviously it's changed the atmosphere

545
00:21:00,710 --> 00:20:58,320
it's changed the look of earth from

546
00:21:02,470 --> 00:21:00,720
space it's changed the hydrological

547
00:21:04,789 --> 00:21:02,480
cycle but even more and more now we're

548
00:21:06,230 --> 00:21:04,799
realizing it's changed the rocks

549
00:21:09,190 --> 00:21:06,240
and the minerals we heard a great talk

550
00:21:11,510 --> 00:21:09,200
about that today that earth has three

551
00:21:12,390 --> 00:21:11,520
times the mineral diversity because of

552
00:21:13,909 --> 00:21:12,400
life

553
00:21:16,070 --> 00:21:13,919
uh there's the range and number of

554
00:21:17,510 --> 00:21:16,080
minerals that the chemistry of life does

555
00:21:19,350 --> 00:21:17,520
to it that it would have if it was a

556
00:21:22,470 --> 00:21:19,360
lifeless planet it's even changed the

557
00:21:23,510 --> 00:21:22,480
interior properties of the planet so so

558
00:21:25,830 --> 00:21:23,520
life

559
00:21:27,510 --> 00:21:25,840
it was this early branching point and

560
00:21:29,270 --> 00:21:27,520
then subsequently for nearly four

561
00:21:30,470 --> 00:21:29,280
billion years earth has been evolving

562
00:21:32,710 --> 00:21:30,480
under the influence

563
00:21:34,070 --> 00:21:32,720
of global forces that have seemingly not

564
00:21:36,149 --> 00:21:34,080
been at work on our neighboring planet

565
00:21:38,470 --> 00:21:36,159
so there was a branching point

566
00:21:39,830 --> 00:21:38,480
and what i'm interested in is the

567
00:21:42,630 --> 00:21:39,840
possibility that what we're going

568
00:21:44,950 --> 00:21:42,640
through now the anthropocene

569
00:21:46,549 --> 00:21:44,960
looked at in terms of cosmic evolution

570
00:21:48,630 --> 00:21:46,559
and the kinds of things that can happen

571
00:21:50,470 --> 00:21:48,640
to planets maybe in a certain sense

572
00:21:52,710 --> 00:21:50,480
another branching point

573
00:21:55,029 --> 00:21:52,720
more recently as illustrated here by

574
00:21:55,909 --> 00:21:55,039
this illuminated nightside earth

575
00:21:57,590 --> 00:21:55,919
earth

576
00:21:59,750 --> 00:21:57,600
has come under the influence of a new

577
00:22:01,750 --> 00:21:59,760
type of geological force the global

578
00:22:03,270 --> 00:22:01,760
activities of humanity defining the

579
00:22:05,190 --> 00:22:03,280
anthropocene

580
00:22:07,990 --> 00:22:05,200
so again i want to sort of try to

581
00:22:09,350 --> 00:22:08,000
present a context to think about that

582
00:22:11,350 --> 00:22:09,360
now

583
00:22:12,789 --> 00:22:11,360
we are not the first species the first

584
00:22:16,149 --> 00:22:12,799
kind of life to come along and

585
00:22:17,590 --> 00:22:16,159
profoundly change the earth

586
00:22:20,149 --> 00:22:17,600
in fact

587
00:22:22,390 --> 00:22:20,159
the most extreme transition ever in

588
00:22:24,830 --> 00:22:22,400
earth history happened a little over two

589
00:22:27,270 --> 00:22:24,840
billion years ago and it was the great

590
00:22:29,830 --> 00:22:27,280
oxygenation event

591
00:22:31,590 --> 00:22:29,840
now we think of oxygen as this wonderful

592
00:22:33,990 --> 00:22:31,600
thing and we're glad that the great

593
00:22:35,430 --> 00:22:34,000
oxygen oxygen

594
00:22:37,590 --> 00:22:35,440
oxygenation

595
00:22:39,029 --> 00:22:37,600
event that happened

596
00:22:41,590 --> 00:22:39,039
uh because

597
00:22:44,630 --> 00:22:41,600
we like oxygen i love auction

598
00:22:47,590 --> 00:22:44,640
ah it's a good thing but

599
00:22:49,430 --> 00:22:47,600
at the time it was a disaster it was a

600
00:22:51,350 --> 00:22:49,440
profound

601
00:22:53,510 --> 00:22:51,360
change and it led to a mass extinction

602
00:22:57,350 --> 00:22:53,520
because oxygen is poisonous to organic

603
00:22:59,590 --> 00:22:57,360
life life now has evolved to make use of

604
00:23:02,149 --> 00:22:59,600
that violent reaction that oxygen goes

605
00:23:05,190 --> 00:23:02,159
through with organic chemistry that's

606
00:23:06,470 --> 00:23:05,200
how we live we power ourselves on that

607
00:23:08,630 --> 00:23:06,480
that

608
00:23:10,950 --> 00:23:08,640
combustion reaction

609
00:23:13,669 --> 00:23:10,960
but when the oxygen first appeared and

610
00:23:16,070 --> 00:23:13,679
life did not handle it it was disaster a

611
00:23:17,990 --> 00:23:16,080
lot of species went extinct so oxygen is

612
00:23:19,990 --> 00:23:18,000
poisonous and not only that it may have

613
00:23:23,669 --> 00:23:20,000
caused a great

614
00:23:25,990 --> 00:23:23,679
huge global global climate disaster

615
00:23:28,230 --> 00:23:26,000
there's something that we call the paleo

616
00:23:30,230 --> 00:23:28,240
protozoa snowball earth

617
00:23:32,230 --> 00:23:30,240
it's one of the few times in history

618
00:23:33,270 --> 00:23:32,240
when earth has become completely iced

619
00:23:35,350 --> 00:23:33,280
over

620
00:23:37,270 --> 00:23:35,360
and may have become almost irreversibly

621
00:23:39,110 --> 00:23:37,280
iced over there's a state where it can

622
00:23:41,350 --> 00:23:39,120
become stably

623
00:23:44,390 --> 00:23:41,360
glaciated because when a planet gets

624
00:23:46,870 --> 00:23:44,400
iced over it reflects more sunlight and

625
00:23:48,870 --> 00:23:46,880
sort of keeps itself cool

626
00:23:51,110 --> 00:23:48,880
fortunately the volcanoes came to the

627
00:23:52,870 --> 00:23:51,120
rescue and pumped up co2 and

628
00:23:54,710 --> 00:23:52,880
got us out of that trap but nonetheless

629
00:23:56,149 --> 00:23:54,720
it's a scary thought that a planet you

630
00:23:57,750 --> 00:23:56,159
know if a planet's a little bit farther

631
00:24:00,630 --> 00:23:57,760
out from the sun maybe it could get

632
00:24:03,750 --> 00:24:00,640
trapped in that state so what happened

633
00:24:05,990 --> 00:24:03,760
was probably at that time earth was

634
00:24:08,630 --> 00:24:06,000
being kept warm by a methane greenhouse

635
00:24:10,870 --> 00:24:08,640
a ch4 greenhouse and then the oxygen

636
00:24:12,630 --> 00:24:10,880
came along and oxygen destroys methane

637
00:24:13,830 --> 00:24:12,640
and it collapsed the climate and led to

638
00:24:15,669 --> 00:24:13,840
this global

639
00:24:17,350 --> 00:24:15,679
freezing so it could have been a close

640
00:24:18,549 --> 00:24:17,360
call to irreversible planetary

641
00:24:20,789 --> 00:24:18,559
destruction

642
00:24:22,630 --> 00:24:20,799
and my you know slightly facetious way

643
00:24:24,310 --> 00:24:22,640
of describing it here is that by

644
00:24:26,110 --> 00:24:24,320
innocently exploiting a new energy

645
00:24:28,470 --> 00:24:26,120
resource because that's all that the

646
00:24:30,470 --> 00:24:28,480
cyanobacteria who did this were doing

647
00:24:32,149 --> 00:24:30,480
they said oh great solar energy we love

648
00:24:34,310 --> 00:24:32,159
it let's multiply and do more and more

649
00:24:36,230 --> 00:24:34,320
of it they free energy that's all they

650
00:24:38,310 --> 00:24:36,240
were doing was exploiting

651
00:24:42,710 --> 00:24:38,320
an energy resource

652
00:24:50,950 --> 00:24:46,630
how weird i started hearing myself

653
00:24:56,870 --> 00:24:54,630
it's going to mess me up all right

654
00:24:59,190 --> 00:24:56,880
those irresponsible bacteria cause the

655
00:25:01,590 --> 00:24:59,200
global environmental catastrophe now i'm

656
00:25:03,269 --> 00:25:01,600
joking because i don't really think that

657
00:25:06,230 --> 00:25:03,279
bacteria are capable of being

658
00:25:07,990 --> 00:25:06,240
irresponsible but

659
00:25:10,390 --> 00:25:08,000
looking at that question what is the

660
00:25:13,269 --> 00:25:10,400
difference between what we are doing

661
00:25:15,110 --> 00:25:13,279
between us and the cyanobacteria is one

662
00:25:17,830 --> 00:25:15,120
interesting way of thinking about the

663
00:25:20,230 --> 00:25:17,840
transformation that's going on now on

664
00:25:22,149 --> 00:25:20,240
earth so as i said we're not the first

665
00:25:24,230 --> 00:25:22,159
species to cause global change so what

666
00:25:27,110 --> 00:25:24,240
have we got that the cyanobacteria

667
00:25:29,190 --> 00:25:27,120
didn't well now you get into what i'm

668
00:25:31,350 --> 00:25:29,200
sort of grouping together as human

669
00:25:33,750 --> 00:25:31,360
qualities here and these are all sort of

670
00:25:35,830 --> 00:25:33,760
loaded concepts and we could argue them

671
00:25:37,669 --> 00:25:35,840
each one there it's an interesting

672
00:25:40,870 --> 00:25:37,679
question really what does distinguish

673
00:25:42,950 --> 00:25:40,880
humans from the rest of life but

674
00:25:44,310 --> 00:25:42,960
these kinds of things are what are

675
00:25:46,710 --> 00:25:44,320
usually discussed

676
00:25:49,430 --> 00:25:46,720
language tool use

677
00:25:52,470 --> 00:25:49,440
art technology

678
00:25:55,350 --> 00:25:52,480
intelligence consciousness foresight

679
00:25:56,950 --> 00:25:55,360
awareness responsibility

680
00:25:59,350 --> 00:25:56,960
any one of these you could argue but i

681
00:26:01,750 --> 00:25:59,360
think collectively you get the idea they

682
00:26:03,830 --> 00:26:01,760
form this set of qualities that makes us

683
00:26:05,830 --> 00:26:03,840
human and differentiates us from for

684
00:26:07,190 --> 00:26:05,840
example the cyanobacteria now somebody

685
00:26:09,510 --> 00:26:07,200
joked to me and i think in a way it's

686
00:26:11,190 --> 00:26:09,520
true that these are actually all the

687
00:26:12,230 --> 00:26:11,200
things that we don't have quite enough

688
00:26:15,830 --> 00:26:12,240
of

689
00:26:17,990 --> 00:26:15,840
may be true but you know it's

690
00:26:19,909 --> 00:26:18,000
interesting to look at this as a group

691
00:26:22,149 --> 00:26:19,919
of qualities that we have and you can

692
00:26:24,870 --> 00:26:22,159
ask in evolutionary terms are these

693
00:26:27,269 --> 00:26:24,880
qualities adaptive that is

694
00:26:28,710 --> 00:26:27,279
will we actually do they facilitate

695
00:26:29,590 --> 00:26:28,720
survival

696
00:26:31,909 --> 00:26:29,600
or

697
00:26:33,269 --> 00:26:31,919
are they in some way an evolutionary

698
00:26:34,789 --> 00:26:33,279
dead end

699
00:26:37,029 --> 00:26:34,799
could they be a potential gateway to

700
00:26:39,430 --> 00:26:37,039
great longevity

701
00:26:42,390 --> 00:26:39,440
one can see how they might be

702
00:26:45,110 --> 00:26:42,400
these are ways of solving problems

703
00:26:47,190 --> 00:26:45,120
and obviously you can imagine problems

704
00:26:50,230 --> 00:26:47,200
that can be solved by creatures with

705
00:26:52,230 --> 00:26:50,240
these that that without these qualities

706
00:26:54,789 --> 00:26:52,240
would would threaten your existence if

707
00:26:56,549 --> 00:26:54,799
an asteroid is heading your way

708
00:26:58,630 --> 00:26:56,559
the cyanobacteria wouldn't be able to do

709
00:27:00,710 --> 00:26:58,640
anything about that in theory we could

710
00:27:02,230 --> 00:27:00,720
so one can imagine these as qualities

711
00:27:04,310 --> 00:27:02,240
that might threaten our survival or

712
00:27:06,549 --> 00:27:04,320
might ensure it

713
00:27:09,350 --> 00:27:06,559
and if civilization is now a planetary

714
00:27:10,950 --> 00:27:09,360
process what are its prospects here and

715
00:27:12,950 --> 00:27:10,960
elsewhere in the universe are there

716
00:27:15,990 --> 00:27:12,960
things about this list that can be

717
00:27:18,630 --> 00:27:16,000
extrapolated to evolution

718
00:27:19,430 --> 00:27:18,640
of complex life on other planets

719
00:27:21,190 --> 00:27:19,440
so

720
00:27:23,430 --> 00:27:21,200
in order to get a little more of a

721
00:27:25,190 --> 00:27:23,440
handle on this and again working on this

722
00:27:26,310 --> 00:27:25,200
question of how to contextualize what is

723
00:27:28,070 --> 00:27:26,320
happening

724
00:27:31,190 --> 00:27:28,080
i'm going to present to you

725
00:27:32,390 --> 00:27:31,200
sort of a taxonomy of catastrophe here

726
00:27:34,310 --> 00:27:32,400
here are

727
00:27:36,310 --> 00:27:34,320
i've looked at the different kinds of

728
00:27:38,549 --> 00:27:36,320
planetary changes that happen not just

729
00:27:41,430 --> 00:27:38,559
on earth but on planets in general and

730
00:27:43,750 --> 00:27:41,440
i've grouped them into four categories

731
00:27:44,870 --> 00:27:43,760
classified with respect to the influence

732
00:27:47,350 --> 00:27:44,880
of life

733
00:27:50,070 --> 00:27:47,360
and i call them natural disasters

734
00:27:53,430 --> 00:27:50,080
biological catastrophes inadvertent

735
00:27:54,870 --> 00:27:53,440
catastrophes and intentional changes

736
00:27:56,070 --> 00:27:54,880
let me say a little bit more what i

737
00:27:57,990 --> 00:27:56,080
actually mean

738
00:27:59,990 --> 00:27:58,000
by these four kinds of planetary change

739
00:28:02,310 --> 00:28:00,000
so planetary changes of the first kind

740
00:28:04,710 --> 00:28:02,320
natural disasters i don't mean exactly

741
00:28:07,190 --> 00:28:04,720
what we normally mean by that phrase

742
00:28:09,110 --> 00:28:07,200
what i mean specifically is

743
00:28:11,269 --> 00:28:09,120
drastic changes that happen to a planet

744
00:28:13,029 --> 00:28:11,279
where life had nothing to do with it

745
00:28:15,190 --> 00:28:13,039
life is not implicated life is an

746
00:28:18,310 --> 00:28:15,200
innocent bystander so the obvious

747
00:28:19,669 --> 00:28:18,320
example is an asteroid impact or a comet

748
00:28:21,590 --> 00:28:19,679
impact and this has happened several

749
00:28:24,789 --> 00:28:21,600
times over the history of the earth most

750
00:28:27,190 --> 00:28:24,799
dramatically 65 million years ago when

751
00:28:29,029 --> 00:28:27,200
the dinosaurs and everybody else around

752
00:28:31,269 --> 00:28:29,039
at that time or almost everybody around

753
00:28:34,230 --> 00:28:31,279
that time went extinct because of the

754
00:28:35,669 --> 00:28:34,240
drastic changes caused by an impact but

755
00:28:37,990 --> 00:28:35,679
there are other examples that i would

756
00:28:40,470 --> 00:28:38,000
put in this category as well what we

757
00:28:43,350 --> 00:28:40,480
call large igneous provinces or major

758
00:28:45,190 --> 00:28:43,360
volcanic episodes where the earth goes

759
00:28:46,870 --> 00:28:45,200
through some sort of burp in its

760
00:28:48,710 --> 00:28:46,880
interior and there's a massive

761
00:28:50,789 --> 00:28:48,720
outpouring of lava and some of these are

762
00:28:52,870 --> 00:28:50,799
so dramatic that they cause huge climate

763
00:28:54,710 --> 00:28:52,880
excursions and we know they can lead to

764
00:28:57,350 --> 00:28:54,720
mass extinctions

765
00:28:59,029 --> 00:28:57,360
some of the famous ones the deccan traps

766
00:29:00,950 --> 00:28:59,039
in india

767
00:29:03,909 --> 00:29:00,960
close to the time when the dinosaurs got

768
00:29:05,110 --> 00:29:03,919
wiped out over 60 million years ago the

769
00:29:09,029 --> 00:29:05,120
largest

770
00:29:12,389 --> 00:29:09,039
one on earth was the anton java plateau

771
00:29:15,269 --> 00:29:12,399
here in the south pacific and the the um

772
00:29:17,590 --> 00:29:15,279
the siberian traps up here

773
00:29:19,750 --> 00:29:17,600
in siberia uh

774
00:29:21,909 --> 00:29:19,760
have recently been implicated in the

775
00:29:23,669 --> 00:29:21,919
greatest mass extinction of all what we

776
00:29:27,269 --> 00:29:23,679
call the great dying or the perma

777
00:29:30,789 --> 00:29:27,279
triassic extinction 250 million years

778
00:29:34,070 --> 00:29:30,799
ago happened to be just at that moment

779
00:29:36,549 --> 00:29:34,080
when there was a massive outpouring of

780
00:29:38,310 --> 00:29:36,559
volcanic lava and the gases that changed

781
00:29:41,430 --> 00:29:38,320
the climate and changed the chemical

782
00:29:43,669 --> 00:29:41,440
environment that life needs 250 million

783
00:29:45,269 --> 00:29:43,679
years ago now it turns out that the plot

784
00:29:46,310 --> 00:29:45,279
thickens and that that particular

785
00:29:48,630 --> 00:29:46,320
catastrophe might have been a

786
00:29:50,389 --> 00:29:48,640
combination of

787
00:29:52,789 --> 00:29:50,399
category one and category two because

788
00:29:54,549 --> 00:29:52,799
there was a biological component to that

789
00:29:56,710 --> 00:29:54,559
where it seems as though

790
00:29:59,909 --> 00:29:56,720
bacteria that made a lot of methane

791
00:30:02,149 --> 00:29:59,919
might have contributed to that

792
00:30:03,909 --> 00:30:02,159
extinction so that brings us to

793
00:30:05,750 --> 00:30:03,919
planetary changes of the second kind

794
00:30:08,950 --> 00:30:05,760
biological

795
00:30:11,669 --> 00:30:08,960
and i symbolize that here with

796
00:30:12,950 --> 00:30:11,679
the green leaf because the best example

797
00:30:14,310 --> 00:30:12,960
of that is the one i've already been

798
00:30:17,830 --> 00:30:14,320
talking about the evolution of

799
00:30:20,389 --> 00:30:17,840
photosynthesis which was very much

800
00:30:21,510 --> 00:30:20,399
the result of biological evolution and

801
00:30:23,830 --> 00:30:21,520
led to

802
00:30:25,909 --> 00:30:23,840
a huge catastrophe a huge change in the

803
00:30:28,149 --> 00:30:25,919
chemical and climate state of the planet

804
00:30:29,750 --> 00:30:28,159
and mass extinction

805
00:30:31,750 --> 00:30:29,760
and all that follows

806
00:30:34,070 --> 00:30:31,760
now

807
00:30:34,870 --> 00:30:34,080
the third kind of change i want to talk

808
00:30:37,669 --> 00:30:34,880
about

809
00:30:39,750 --> 00:30:37,679
is basically what's happening now

810
00:30:42,870 --> 00:30:39,760
inadvertent change

811
00:30:44,870 --> 00:30:42,880
and i'm symbolizing it here by traffic

812
00:30:47,669 --> 00:30:44,880
and these are all the kinds of

813
00:30:51,350 --> 00:30:47,679
unplanned but massive changes that

814
00:30:53,669 --> 00:30:51,360
humanity is inducing on earth

815
00:30:56,389 --> 00:30:53,679
and

816
00:30:58,070 --> 00:30:56,399
the fact that we are having these huge

817
00:30:59,750 --> 00:30:58,080
effects on the planet

818
00:31:01,350 --> 00:30:59,760
but they're not it's not intentional

819
00:31:03,269 --> 00:31:01,360
nobody got together and said hey let's

820
00:31:05,990 --> 00:31:03,279
change the co2

821
00:31:08,230 --> 00:31:06,000
it's just happening as a result of our

822
00:31:10,230 --> 00:31:08,240
success at solving certain local

823
00:31:12,149 --> 00:31:10,240
problems with technology

824
00:31:14,070 --> 00:31:12,159
we have these global unintended

825
00:31:16,630 --> 00:31:14,080
consequences and this leads to what i

826
00:31:18,950 --> 00:31:16,640
call the anthropocene dilemma where if

827
00:31:21,750 --> 00:31:18,960
you have a species that has global

828
00:31:24,070 --> 00:31:21,760
influence without global control then

829
00:31:25,669 --> 00:31:24,080
sooner or later that will lead to some

830
00:31:27,510 --> 00:31:25,679
kind of a catastrophe and we're

831
00:31:30,070 --> 00:31:27,520
experiencing that now

832
00:31:31,190 --> 00:31:30,080
uh some other examples of this well

833
00:31:34,230 --> 00:31:31,200
obviously

834
00:31:36,070 --> 00:31:34,240
um atmospheric co2 and this is this is

835
00:31:37,750 --> 00:31:36,080
this is what we call the keeling curve

836
00:31:39,990 --> 00:31:37,760
co2 changing over time and this is

837
00:31:42,070 --> 00:31:40,000
actually this plot's a few years old

838
00:31:43,830 --> 00:31:42,080
it's a decade old and now you'd have to

839
00:31:46,950 --> 00:31:43,840
extend this up we're over we've just

840
00:31:48,789 --> 00:31:46,960
crossed over 400 parts per million co2

841
00:31:51,590 --> 00:31:48,799
and the consequent effects of that of

842
00:31:52,389 --> 00:31:51,600
course the very worrisome disappearance

843
00:31:55,830 --> 00:31:52,399
of

844
00:31:57,029 --> 00:31:55,840
sea ice in in the summer and and fall

845
00:31:59,509 --> 00:31:57,039
and

846
00:32:01,269 --> 00:31:59,519
another example though

847
00:32:02,789 --> 00:32:01,279
that's interesting in this context is

848
00:32:04,230 --> 00:32:02,799
the what you've you've heard about the

849
00:32:06,389 --> 00:32:04,240
ozone hole

850
00:32:08,230 --> 00:32:06,399
where we realized that some what we

851
00:32:10,230 --> 00:32:08,240
thought were harmless chemicals that we

852
00:32:12,389 --> 00:32:10,240
were using down here in the troposphere

853
00:32:14,950 --> 00:32:12,399
where we live when they filtered up to

854
00:32:17,190 --> 00:32:14,960
the stratosphere we're having these

855
00:32:19,430 --> 00:32:17,200
potentially disastrous effects by the

856
00:32:21,269 --> 00:32:19,440
way the fact that chlorine chemicals

857
00:32:23,669 --> 00:32:21,279
destroy ozone

858
00:32:26,230 --> 00:32:23,679
was discovered in no small part because

859
00:32:27,590 --> 00:32:26,240
we were exploring the planet venus

860
00:32:28,870 --> 00:32:27,600
and people were looking trying to

861
00:32:30,789 --> 00:32:28,880
understand what was going on with the

862
00:32:32,070 --> 00:32:30,799
oxygen in the upper atmosphere of venus

863
00:32:34,070 --> 00:32:32,080
and said oh well maybe if there's some

864
00:32:36,630 --> 00:32:34,080
chlorine let's model that and they went

865
00:32:38,310 --> 00:32:36,640
whoa chlorine makes oxygen eats oxygen

866
00:32:39,990 --> 00:32:38,320
chemicals and then somebody else said

867
00:32:42,470 --> 00:32:40,000
wait a minute we're putting chlorine in

868
00:32:44,870 --> 00:32:42,480
earth's stratosphere what's that oh

869
00:32:47,029 --> 00:32:44,880
and and sort of sounded the the alarm

870
00:32:49,990 --> 00:32:47,039
and so this is this is an example of how

871
00:32:51,750 --> 00:32:50,000
planetary exploration and the larger

872
00:32:53,909 --> 00:32:51,760
intellectual exercise of comparative

873
00:32:56,070 --> 00:32:53,919
planetology can can help us out here and

874
00:32:58,070 --> 00:32:56,080
make us smarter about our own planet but

875
00:33:00,389 --> 00:32:58,080
it's also an example

876
00:33:02,870 --> 00:33:00,399
of the next kind of change the fourth

877
00:33:06,230 --> 00:33:02,880
kind of change that i want to talk about

878
00:33:08,070 --> 00:33:06,240
of planetary change intentional because

879
00:33:09,830 --> 00:33:08,080
the nice thing about

880
00:33:12,070 --> 00:33:09,840
the ozone

881
00:33:14,470 --> 00:33:12,080
in this context is that it's actually

882
00:33:17,029 --> 00:33:14,480
being fixed

883
00:33:20,070 --> 00:33:17,039
the problem was recognized

884
00:33:22,830 --> 00:33:20,080
international discussions ensued

885
00:33:24,630 --> 00:33:22,840
international agreements were

886
00:33:27,430 --> 00:33:24,640
formulated and

887
00:33:29,909 --> 00:33:27,440
it's being fixed it's not perfect

888
00:33:32,230 --> 00:33:29,919
there's still some illegal bootleg using

889
00:33:34,630 --> 00:33:32,240
of freon but it's enough so that we're

890
00:33:38,230 --> 00:33:34,640
on track and if we continue on the path

891
00:33:41,029 --> 00:33:38,240
we're on the ozone is going to be okay

892
00:33:43,110 --> 00:33:41,039
so it is an example of proof of concept

893
00:33:44,230 --> 00:33:43,120
if you will that this fourth kind of

894
00:33:46,149 --> 00:33:44,240
change

895
00:33:49,350 --> 00:33:46,159
which in this context i'm saying is a

896
00:33:52,549 --> 00:33:49,360
different category of global change is

897
00:33:54,149 --> 00:33:52,559
possible intentional change and now i'm

898
00:33:56,149 --> 00:33:54,159
going to tell you some other examples

899
00:33:57,990 --> 00:33:56,159
that i think fit in that category so

900
00:34:00,870 --> 00:33:58,000
what do i mean by intentional global

901
00:34:02,870 --> 00:34:00,880
change well i'm talking about change by

902
00:34:04,470 --> 00:34:02,880
truly intelligent life

903
00:34:06,310 --> 00:34:04,480
and in fact you can say what do i mean

904
00:34:07,590 --> 00:34:06,320
by that well i'm actually suggesting

905
00:34:09,750 --> 00:34:07,600
here that this is an interesting way of

906
00:34:11,510 --> 00:34:09,760
defining intelligent life that maybe a

907
00:34:14,310 --> 00:34:11,520
planet doesn't really have intelligent

908
00:34:15,750 --> 00:34:14,320
life in a meaningful way until you get

909
00:34:16,950 --> 00:34:15,760
life that can

910
00:34:18,310 --> 00:34:16,960
enact

911
00:34:20,069 --> 00:34:18,320
this kind

912
00:34:20,950 --> 00:34:20,079
of global change or at least it's a

913
00:34:25,349 --> 00:34:20,960
certain

914
00:34:26,710 --> 00:34:25,359
intelligence because what good is

915
00:34:29,349 --> 00:34:26,720
intelligence certainly what good is

916
00:34:31,669 --> 00:34:29,359
technological intelligence if

917
00:34:33,270 --> 00:34:31,679
it's self-destructive that's not really

918
00:34:35,589 --> 00:34:33,280
doesn't seem all that smart or

919
00:34:37,669 --> 00:34:35,599
intelligent to me so one might say that

920
00:34:40,149 --> 00:34:37,679
this is a way you could think about

921
00:34:42,069 --> 00:34:40,159
defining intelligence or certainly an

922
00:34:45,030 --> 00:34:42,079
interesting and worthwhile development

923
00:34:47,349 --> 00:34:45,040
on a planet to reach the stage where you

924
00:34:49,270 --> 00:34:47,359
have this kind of intentional global

925
00:34:51,669 --> 00:34:49,280
change where intelligent life

926
00:34:53,589 --> 00:34:51,679
acting with forethought and an awareness

927
00:34:55,430 --> 00:34:53,599
of its global role

928
00:34:58,470 --> 00:34:55,440
and the global consequences of its

929
00:35:00,390 --> 00:34:58,480
actions takes responsibility and so

930
00:35:03,030 --> 00:35:00,400
here's some examples i mentioned ozone

931
00:35:03,910 --> 00:35:03,040
replenishment which is already underway

932
00:35:06,230 --> 00:35:03,920
yay

933
00:35:08,630 --> 00:35:06,240
now another example would be intentional

934
00:35:10,550 --> 00:35:08,640
halting or reversal of industrial global

935
00:35:12,390 --> 00:35:10,560
warming now that's currently under

936
00:35:13,829 --> 00:35:12,400
discussion and you know you could

937
00:35:16,550 --> 00:35:13,839
chuckle when i say that but actually i

938
00:35:18,710 --> 00:35:16,560
see that as hugely important it's a big

939
00:35:21,510 --> 00:35:18,720
change this wasn't true we weren't

940
00:35:24,150 --> 00:35:21,520
having a global discussion about this a

941
00:35:25,109 --> 00:35:24,160
decade or two certainly two decades ago

942
00:35:27,109 --> 00:35:25,119
now

943
00:35:29,430 --> 00:35:27,119
you might worry that it's too little too

944
00:35:32,550 --> 00:35:29,440
late i worry about that but i think the

945
00:35:34,470 --> 00:35:32,560
fact that there is now a growing global

946
00:35:37,109 --> 00:35:34,480
awareness and discussion of this is

947
00:35:38,630 --> 00:35:37,119
actually hugely significant and and

948
00:35:40,710 --> 00:35:38,640
quite positive

949
00:35:42,870 --> 00:35:40,720
now other possible examples of this

950
00:35:45,910 --> 00:35:42,880
planetary defense and now i'm talking

951
00:35:47,270 --> 00:35:45,920
about defense against asteroids which

952
00:35:49,990 --> 00:35:47,280
sooner or later

953
00:35:51,750 --> 00:35:50,000
would do in the biosphere in a major way

954
00:35:53,750 --> 00:35:51,760
like they did it

955
00:35:56,630 --> 00:35:53,760
did in the dinosaurs in their

956
00:35:59,349 --> 00:35:56,640
their fellow species at that time but we

957
00:36:01,990 --> 00:35:59,359
know now how to find the dangerous

958
00:36:04,470 --> 00:36:02,000
asteroids and we think we know how to

959
00:36:06,069 --> 00:36:04,480
stop them to build a planetary defense

960
00:36:08,150 --> 00:36:06,079
system and it's a work in progress

961
00:36:09,910 --> 00:36:08,160
because uh we you know we're already

962
00:36:13,430 --> 00:36:09,920
doing the unnecessary observations and

963
00:36:15,109 --> 00:36:13,440
people have plans and ideas about how to

964
00:36:18,550 --> 00:36:15,119
do this and in fact if we found a

965
00:36:21,430 --> 00:36:18,560
dangerous object and we had a decade or

966
00:36:23,910 --> 00:36:21,440
so which we probably would we could do

967
00:36:26,470 --> 00:36:23,920
something about it so we may have

968
00:36:28,870 --> 00:36:26,480
already passed a threshold where that's

969
00:36:31,030 --> 00:36:28,880
not the threat that it was now people

970
00:36:33,510 --> 00:36:31,040
talk about geoengineering

971
00:36:34,710 --> 00:36:33,520
that's very controversial rightfully

972
00:36:37,670 --> 00:36:34,720
it's not the kind of thing you want to

973
00:36:40,630 --> 00:36:37,680
do callously or

974
00:36:42,950 --> 00:36:40,640
ignorantly but my view of geoengineering

975
00:36:44,630 --> 00:36:42,960
is it would be foolish to attempt it

976
00:36:46,550 --> 00:36:44,640
before we know what we're doing but then

977
00:36:48,630 --> 00:36:46,560
in the long run it will probably be a

978
00:36:50,470 --> 00:36:48,640
good idea and be necessary and i'll talk

979
00:36:51,990 --> 00:36:50,480
a little bit more about what i mean by

980
00:36:54,710 --> 00:36:52,000
the long run

981
00:36:56,310 --> 00:36:54,720
another example well that i would claim

982
00:36:58,710 --> 00:36:56,320
goes in this category is the

983
00:37:00,710 --> 00:36:58,720
terraforming of mars the idea that we

984
00:37:03,109 --> 00:37:00,720
could take another planet and make it

985
00:37:05,510 --> 00:37:03,119
more earth-like and a friendly place for

986
00:37:07,510 --> 00:37:05,520
earth life if we wanted to

987
00:37:08,550 --> 00:37:07,520
now whether or not we do want to is a

988
00:37:10,710 --> 00:37:08,560
different question there's a whole

989
00:37:12,310 --> 00:37:10,720
ethical dimension of this and i'm

990
00:37:14,390 --> 00:37:12,320
comforted by the fact that we don't

991
00:37:15,670 --> 00:37:14,400
currently really know how to do this

992
00:37:19,510 --> 00:37:15,680
because i don't think it would be a good

993
00:37:22,550 --> 00:37:19,520
idea to rush out and decide to do this

994
00:37:25,349 --> 00:37:22,560
i was on a panel once with um arthur c

995
00:37:27,430 --> 00:37:25,359
clarke he was he was on the panel by

996
00:37:29,430 --> 00:37:27,440
satellite and mostly the satellite link

997
00:37:31,750 --> 00:37:29,440
didn't work at all and we couldn't hear

998
00:37:34,470 --> 00:37:31,760
him which is sort of ironic since arthur

999
00:37:36,870 --> 00:37:34,480
was the you know invented communication

1000
00:37:37,510 --> 00:37:36,880
satellites but the one the question of

1001
00:37:41,349 --> 00:37:37,520
the

1002
00:37:43,829 --> 00:37:41,359
terraform mars and arthur's voice

1003
00:37:45,990 --> 00:37:43,839
actually in a ghostly way came in loud

1004
00:37:47,349 --> 00:37:46,000
and clear for him to say one phrase and

1005
00:37:49,750 --> 00:37:47,359
then it disappeared again and the one

1006
00:37:54,870 --> 00:37:49,760
phrase he said was well i think we

1007
00:37:58,150 --> 00:37:56,870
true story and

1008
00:37:59,510 --> 00:37:58,160
but he's right i mean we don't want to

1009
00:38:01,109 --> 00:37:59,520
even think about really doing this until

1010
00:38:03,109 --> 00:38:01,119
we know if there are martians or if

1011
00:38:05,190 --> 00:38:03,119
there have been martians it would be

1012
00:38:07,270 --> 00:38:05,200
it would be foolish but but what i think

1013
00:38:09,190 --> 00:38:07,280
is very positive about this is that it's

1014
00:38:10,950 --> 00:38:09,200
caused scientists to really think i mean

1015
00:38:13,190 --> 00:38:10,960
people have gotten together and had

1016
00:38:15,190 --> 00:38:13,200
workshops about how you would do this

1017
00:38:17,109 --> 00:38:15,200
and it's caused us to think about how we

1018
00:38:20,150 --> 00:38:17,119
would intentionally change the climate

1019
00:38:22,470 --> 00:38:20,160
of a planet and so as an exercise in

1020
00:38:24,150 --> 00:38:22,480
trying to understand how climate works

1021
00:38:26,069 --> 00:38:24,160
and what are the limits of natural

1022
00:38:28,630 --> 00:38:26,079
climate change and what are the possible

1023
00:38:30,310 --> 00:38:28,640
ways that as opposed to inadvertently

1024
00:38:32,790 --> 00:38:30,320
changing a planetary climate like we're

1025
00:38:35,270 --> 00:38:32,800
doing now how would you

1026
00:38:36,550 --> 00:38:35,280
how could you consciously change the

1027
00:38:38,310 --> 00:38:36,560
climate of a planet so i think it's been

1028
00:38:40,710 --> 00:38:38,320
a very worthwhile exercise to think

1029
00:38:43,030 --> 00:38:40,720
about that in the longer run sorry about

1030
00:38:45,430 --> 00:38:43,040
the nerdy phrase here malankovic cycle

1031
00:38:48,069 --> 00:38:45,440
what i mean is ice ages in the in

1032
00:38:50,310 --> 00:38:48,079
earth left to its own devices

1033
00:38:51,030 --> 00:38:50,320
in the long run is not a friendly place

1034
00:38:53,430 --> 00:38:51,040
for

1035
00:38:55,190 --> 00:38:53,440
a global civilization

1036
00:38:57,030 --> 00:38:55,200
earth goes through these dramatic

1037
00:38:58,710 --> 00:38:57,040
climate changes all by itself just on

1038
00:39:00,790 --> 00:38:58,720
longer time scales than we're used to

1039
00:39:03,349 --> 00:39:00,800
thinking about we do not want to live

1040
00:39:05,589 --> 00:39:03,359
through another ice age

1041
00:39:07,750 --> 00:39:05,599
we could not sustain the population that

1042
00:39:10,310 --> 00:39:07,760
we have now with agriculture and so

1043
00:39:11,670 --> 00:39:10,320
forth and so if we're around if we solve

1044
00:39:13,030 --> 00:39:11,680
our more immediate problems and we're

1045
00:39:14,710 --> 00:39:13,040
around for

1046
00:39:16,470 --> 00:39:14,720
thousands of years

1047
00:39:18,950 --> 00:39:16,480
we probably will want to do something

1048
00:39:20,950 --> 00:39:18,960
about that and it wouldn't be that hard

1049
00:39:22,950 --> 00:39:20,960
if we can have the kind of effect

1050
00:39:25,190 --> 00:39:22,960
inadvertently we're having on the planet

1051
00:39:26,870 --> 00:39:25,200
now it's not really that it's not really

1052
00:39:28,710 --> 00:39:26,880
a larger effect that we would need to

1053
00:39:31,030 --> 00:39:28,720
have intentionally in fact is probably a

1054
00:39:33,589 --> 00:39:31,040
smaller effect applied in the right way

1055
00:39:35,430 --> 00:39:33,599
to intentionally avoid an ice age so at

1056
00:39:36,310 --> 00:39:35,440
some point if we get through our current

1057
00:39:38,390 --> 00:39:36,320
moment

1058
00:39:40,230 --> 00:39:38,400
we'll be able to do that now thinking on

1059
00:39:42,390 --> 00:39:40,240
much longer time scales and now i'm

1060
00:39:43,990 --> 00:39:42,400
really thinking far future but again i

1061
00:39:45,670 --> 00:39:44,000
think it belongs in this overall

1062
00:39:49,030 --> 00:39:45,680
category

1063
00:39:50,069 --> 00:39:49,040
eventually the sun is going to age

1064
00:39:51,990 --> 00:39:50,079
and

1065
00:39:53,589 --> 00:39:52,000
the earth left to its own devices will

1066
00:39:55,750 --> 00:39:53,599
go through a runaway greenhouse like

1067
00:39:58,310 --> 00:39:55,760
venus did in the past and become

1068
00:40:00,950 --> 00:39:58,320
uninhabitable

1069
00:40:02,790 --> 00:40:00,960
unless we do something about it now

1070
00:40:05,190 --> 00:40:02,800
that's billions of years in the future

1071
00:40:06,630 --> 00:40:05,200
but i would imagine

1072
00:40:09,109 --> 00:40:06,640
or at least a billion years i would

1073
00:40:11,510 --> 00:40:09,119
imagine if somehow we or our descendants

1074
00:40:12,950 --> 00:40:11,520
or our creations or somebody

1075
00:40:16,710 --> 00:40:12,960
with something going on up here or

1076
00:40:18,150 --> 00:40:16,720
wherever it's located at that point um

1077
00:40:20,710 --> 00:40:18,160
is around

1078
00:40:22,790 --> 00:40:20,720
that they would have a have had a lot of

1079
00:40:26,230 --> 00:40:22,800
time to work this problem

1080
00:40:29,510 --> 00:40:26,240
and so this is a sequence

1081
00:40:32,150 --> 00:40:29,520
of ideas on different time scales about

1082
00:40:34,069 --> 00:40:32,160
how intentional global change might

1083
00:40:35,990 --> 00:40:34,079
manifest

1084
00:40:37,910 --> 00:40:36,000
now i've given you these four kinds of

1085
00:40:39,510 --> 00:40:37,920
planetary change let's think about where

1086
00:40:42,950 --> 00:40:39,520
they might exist elsewhere in the

1087
00:40:44,470 --> 00:40:42,960
universe natural disasters

1088
00:40:46,069 --> 00:40:44,480
i think will occur on all planets

1089
00:40:47,829 --> 00:40:46,079
certainly on any planet interesting

1090
00:40:50,790 --> 00:40:47,839
enough to have life

1091
00:40:54,069 --> 00:40:50,800
it will be changeable there will be

1092
00:40:56,550 --> 00:40:54,079
impacts there will be volcanoes

1093
00:40:59,190 --> 00:40:56,560
as the bumper sticker goes stuff happens

1094
00:41:01,430 --> 00:40:59,200
right and that will be true so this will

1095
00:41:03,510 --> 00:41:01,440
be unavoidable anywhere biologically

1096
00:41:06,309 --> 00:41:03,520
induced

1097
00:41:08,550 --> 00:41:06,319
catastrophes i think will occur on all

1098
00:41:10,309 --> 00:41:08,560
planets with life even though we can

1099
00:41:11,990 --> 00:41:10,319
argue about what life is and what its

1100
00:41:13,190 --> 00:41:12,000
properties might be universally and

1101
00:41:15,670 --> 00:41:13,200
believe me that's what we

1102
00:41:18,870 --> 00:41:15,680
astrobiologists do it's almost all we do

1103
00:41:20,630 --> 00:41:18,880
is argue about that but but um i think

1104
00:41:21,990 --> 00:41:20,640
it's safe to say that life is something

1105
00:41:23,990 --> 00:41:22,000
that multiplies and alters its

1106
00:41:25,829 --> 00:41:24,000
environment and if you just have those

1107
00:41:27,910 --> 00:41:25,839
two qualities then i think it's true

1108
00:41:29,510 --> 00:41:27,920
that sooner or later life on a planet

1109
00:41:31,270 --> 00:41:29,520
will cause

1110
00:41:33,430 --> 00:41:31,280
environmental catastrophes and then have

1111
00:41:36,309 --> 00:41:33,440
to deal with the aftermath what about

1112
00:41:39,270 --> 00:41:36,319
these last two categories inadvertent

1113
00:41:41,190 --> 00:41:39,280
catastrophe and intentional change

1114
00:41:42,870 --> 00:41:41,200
when we start wondering where else in

1115
00:41:45,349 --> 00:41:42,880
the universe those might happen then

1116
00:41:48,069 --> 00:41:45,359
we're in the realm of seti the search

1117
00:41:50,150 --> 00:41:48,079
for extraterrestrial intelligence and

1118
00:41:52,150 --> 00:41:50,160
you can start asking this question are

1119
00:41:53,990 --> 00:41:52,160
we alone in the universe is there

1120
00:41:57,990 --> 00:41:54,000
something about this story that makes it

1121
00:42:01,430 --> 00:41:59,270
and

1122
00:42:03,190 --> 00:42:01,440
one of the values of thinking in this

1123
00:42:04,630 --> 00:42:03,200
way is it makes us think of the long

1124
00:42:06,790 --> 00:42:04,640
term

1125
00:42:08,309 --> 00:42:06,800
when we think about other civilizations

1126
00:42:09,750 --> 00:42:08,319
and whether or not they might be out

1127
00:42:11,109 --> 00:42:09,760
there and whether or not we can find

1128
00:42:13,030 --> 00:42:11,119
them you

1129
00:42:15,589 --> 00:42:13,040
the conversation always leads to the

1130
00:42:17,270 --> 00:42:15,599
question of how long civilizations last

1131
00:42:19,510 --> 00:42:17,280
if they don't last very long then

1132
00:42:21,109 --> 00:42:19,520
they're few and far between

1133
00:42:23,349 --> 00:42:21,119
i mean you can do the math i'll actually

1134
00:42:26,150 --> 00:42:23,359
show the equation for this in a minute

1135
00:42:28,470 --> 00:42:26,160
if they last a long time then it's much

1136
00:42:31,510 --> 00:42:28,480
more likely that they're going to be

1137
00:42:33,510 --> 00:42:31,520
less rare and easier to find so whenever

1138
00:42:35,910 --> 00:42:33,520
you start wondering about

1139
00:42:37,910 --> 00:42:35,920
other civilizations existing in the

1140
00:42:40,309 --> 00:42:37,920
cosmos you start wondering about the

1141
00:42:42,950 --> 00:42:40,319
longevity of civilizations and one of

1142
00:42:44,790 --> 00:42:42,960
the values of the anthropocene i think

1143
00:42:46,870 --> 00:42:44,800
as a concept is that it situates

1144
00:42:49,109 --> 00:42:46,880
situates us in in sort of big time in

1145
00:42:50,550 --> 00:42:49,119
deep time and geological time and it's

1146
00:42:52,470 --> 00:42:50,560
not only a way of thinking about our

1147
00:42:53,990 --> 00:42:52,480
past it's a way of thinking about our

1148
00:42:56,630 --> 00:42:54,000
future and we can ask what is the

1149
00:42:59,270 --> 00:42:56,640
anthropocene what will it be in earth

1150
00:43:01,750 --> 00:42:59,280
history will it be an event

1151
00:43:03,670 --> 00:43:01,760
an epoch or some kind of a planetary

1152
00:43:05,270 --> 00:43:03,680
transition and in the geological time

1153
00:43:07,589 --> 00:43:05,280
scale they're examples of all these when

1154
00:43:10,470 --> 00:43:07,599
i say an event i mean something like the

1155
00:43:13,270 --> 00:43:10,480
cretaceous tertiary boundary the little

1156
00:43:15,030 --> 00:43:13,280
centimeter of clay that marks they fall

1157
00:43:17,510 --> 00:43:15,040
out from that asteroid that killed the

1158
00:43:20,550 --> 00:43:17,520
dinosaur 65 million years ago that was

1159
00:43:22,710 --> 00:43:20,560
an event the actual change was very

1160
00:43:25,990 --> 00:43:22,720
brief the aftermath was long and

1161
00:43:27,750 --> 00:43:26,000
interesting and we're still in it but um

1162
00:43:29,510 --> 00:43:27,760
but in terms of the geological history

1163
00:43:31,430 --> 00:43:29,520
it was a thin layer

1164
00:43:34,069 --> 00:43:31,440
so the anthropocene could be like that

1165
00:43:36,390 --> 00:43:34,079
it could just be a strange layer

1166
00:43:39,589 --> 00:43:36,400
of um you know

1167
00:43:43,270 --> 00:43:39,599
water plastic bottles and

1168
00:43:46,470 --> 00:43:43,280
laptops and our other debris

1169
00:43:48,390 --> 00:43:46,480
and and you know if if if all we do is

1170
00:43:50,150 --> 00:43:48,400
burn our fossil fuels in some sort of

1171
00:43:52,069 --> 00:43:50,160
orgy of consumption and don't really

1172
00:43:53,829 --> 00:43:52,079
think about the future

1173
00:43:56,230 --> 00:43:53,839
that may end up being what the

1174
00:43:58,470 --> 00:43:56,240
anthropocene is but it could also be

1175
00:44:00,150 --> 00:43:58,480
something longer lived

1176
00:44:02,390 --> 00:44:00,160
it's actually been proposed in the

1177
00:44:04,230 --> 00:44:02,400
geologic time scale as an epoch people

1178
00:44:06,790 --> 00:44:04,240
talk about the anthropocene epoch well

1179
00:44:08,790 --> 00:44:06,800
if it's really going to be an e-pocket

1180
00:44:10,630 --> 00:44:08,800
in geological time that's often

1181
00:44:12,309 --> 00:44:10,640
something that lasts for say

1182
00:44:14,309 --> 00:44:12,319
10 million years or that kind of time

1183
00:44:15,990 --> 00:44:14,319
scale like the paleocene

1184
00:44:19,190 --> 00:44:16,000
was um

1185
00:44:21,270 --> 00:44:19,200
from 65 to 50 58 million years ago the

1186
00:44:23,829 --> 00:44:21,280
palestinian epoch

1187
00:44:25,190 --> 00:44:23,839
so the third possibility i think is it

1188
00:44:27,670 --> 00:44:25,200
could actually be something more

1189
00:44:30,630 --> 00:44:27,680
profound a planetary transition

1190
00:44:32,390 --> 00:44:30,640
a few times in the history of earth

1191
00:44:34,829 --> 00:44:32,400
the planet has gone through a major

1192
00:44:37,750 --> 00:44:34,839
transition such that the

1193
00:44:39,990 --> 00:44:37,760
rules of change on the planet are

1194
00:44:41,829 --> 00:44:40,000
fundamentally altered before and after

1195
00:44:43,990 --> 00:44:41,839
an example i talked about earlier was

1196
00:44:46,069 --> 00:44:44,000
the origin of life which forever changed

1197
00:44:47,430 --> 00:44:46,079
the planet another example well i

1198
00:44:49,430 --> 00:44:47,440
mentioned the rise of oxygen i think

1199
00:44:51,109 --> 00:44:49,440
that rates is a planetary transition

1200
00:44:54,349 --> 00:44:51,119
there's also the cambrian explosion

1201
00:44:57,829 --> 00:44:54,359
about 600 million years ago when

1202
00:45:00,069 --> 00:44:57,839
multicellular complex

1203
00:45:02,230 --> 00:45:00,079
animal and plant life

1204
00:45:05,349 --> 00:45:02,240
burst on the scene

1205
00:45:08,470 --> 00:45:05,359
and really forever changed the planet so

1206
00:45:09,589 --> 00:45:08,480
i wonder if the anthropocene might also

1207
00:45:12,069 --> 00:45:09,599
be

1208
00:45:14,630 --> 00:45:12,079
a planetary transition if

1209
00:45:16,710 --> 00:45:14,640
somehow this new kind

1210
00:45:19,109 --> 00:45:16,720
of geologic change that we've been

1211
00:45:20,309 --> 00:45:19,119
discussing might be a part of the

1212
00:45:22,630 --> 00:45:20,319
planet's

1213
00:45:23,829 --> 00:45:22,640
operating system for for the rest of

1214
00:45:26,470 --> 00:45:23,839
time

1215
00:45:28,950 --> 00:45:26,480
on this planet but what would that take

1216
00:45:31,430 --> 00:45:28,960
well this is another way of asking again

1217
00:45:32,950 --> 00:45:31,440
is human style intelligence adaptive or

1218
00:45:35,109 --> 00:45:32,960
self-limiting

1219
00:45:37,030 --> 00:45:35,119
whatever's going on here is it something

1220
00:45:40,030 --> 00:45:37,040
that actually could last

1221
00:45:43,030 --> 00:45:40,040
or is something that is inherently

1222
00:45:44,470 --> 00:45:43,040
self-self-destructive self-limiting um

1223
00:45:46,870 --> 00:45:44,480
the answer of course

1224
00:45:48,230 --> 00:45:46,880
is we have a choice as that great

1225
00:45:52,390 --> 00:45:48,240
philosopher

1226
00:45:54,150 --> 00:45:52,400
sarah connor in the movie terminator

1227
00:45:56,870 --> 00:45:54,160
carved into the picnic table and that

1228
00:45:59,109 --> 00:45:56,880
one scene down in mexico the future is

1229
00:46:03,349 --> 00:45:59,119
unwritten there is no fate but what we

1230
00:46:05,270 --> 00:46:03,359
make okay so obviously we don't know

1231
00:46:07,109 --> 00:46:05,280
but it may be that our actions will

1232
00:46:11,510 --> 00:46:07,119
determine which of these the

1233
00:46:15,910 --> 00:46:13,910
it's funny because people talk about the

1234
00:46:17,589 --> 00:46:15,920
anthropocene and they look over on this

1235
00:46:19,670 --> 00:46:17,599
right side and the big debate now in the

1236
00:46:22,069 --> 00:46:19,680
geologic history is if we've actually

1237
00:46:24,309 --> 00:46:22,079
passed from the holocene epoch to the

1238
00:46:26,470 --> 00:46:24,319
anthropocene epoch but i actually think

1239
00:46:29,109 --> 00:46:26,480
maybe they're looking at the wrong side

1240
00:46:31,030 --> 00:46:29,119
of this chart it may be

1241
00:46:33,270 --> 00:46:31,040
if you look over on the left side at the

1242
00:46:35,349 --> 00:46:33,280
eons

1243
00:46:39,510 --> 00:46:35,359
the really big transitions the origin of

1244
00:46:41,750 --> 00:46:39,520
life the cambrian explosion are

1245
00:46:43,910 --> 00:46:41,760
representative of cambrian explosion a

1246
00:46:46,150 --> 00:46:43,920
representative of new eons and i wonder

1247
00:46:48,309 --> 00:46:46,160
if in fact maybe

1248
00:46:49,750 --> 00:46:48,319
what we are talking about is at least

1249
00:46:51,589 --> 00:46:49,760
potentially

1250
00:46:53,030 --> 00:46:51,599
if it's really going to be a transition

1251
00:46:54,550 --> 00:46:53,040
in the way the planet operates it might

1252
00:46:56,710 --> 00:46:54,560
be something much more profound than a

1253
00:46:59,430 --> 00:46:56,720
new epoch it might be a new eon of

1254
00:47:01,109 --> 00:46:59,440
geologic time that we're entering

1255
00:47:03,829 --> 00:47:01,119
anyways

1256
00:47:05,109 --> 00:47:03,839
the problem of course

1257
00:47:06,069 --> 00:47:05,119
is ourselves

1258
00:47:08,710 --> 00:47:06,079
and

1259
00:47:10,550 --> 00:47:08,720
many of many sagacious smart people have

1260
00:47:13,030 --> 00:47:10,560
talked about a kind of 21st century

1261
00:47:14,630 --> 00:47:13,040
bottleneck that we're facing

1262
00:47:17,190 --> 00:47:14,640
i'm talking about people like sir martin

1263
00:47:19,670 --> 00:47:17,200
reese who wrote this book our final hour

1264
00:47:21,589 --> 00:47:19,680
he gives us a 50 50 chance of surviving

1265
00:47:23,349 --> 00:47:21,599
the 21st century

1266
00:47:25,190 --> 00:47:23,359
which doesn't sound great but it's you

1267
00:47:26,870 --> 00:47:25,200
know it's fighting odds

1268
00:47:31,109 --> 00:47:26,880
um

1269
00:47:33,349 --> 00:47:31,119
the future of life he also talked about

1270
00:47:35,109 --> 00:47:33,359
this 21st century bottleneck that is if

1271
00:47:36,870 --> 00:47:35,119
you look at this

1272
00:47:39,829 --> 00:47:36,880
confluence of all these problems we're

1273
00:47:41,990 --> 00:47:39,839
facing in areas of population energy

1274
00:47:45,030 --> 00:47:42,000
global warming biodiversity and then

1275
00:47:47,109 --> 00:47:45,040
these other potential high-tech problems

1276
00:47:49,829 --> 00:47:47,119
of um potentially dangerous new

1277
00:47:51,670 --> 00:47:49,839
technologies nano bio cyber and

1278
00:47:52,870 --> 00:47:51,680
experiments we might do that might run a

1279
00:47:54,470 --> 00:47:52,880
rock run

1280
00:47:56,550 --> 00:47:54,480
run away from us

1281
00:47:58,470 --> 00:47:56,560
there's this sense of of a bottleneck a

1282
00:48:00,710 --> 00:47:58,480
convergence that either

1283
00:48:02,390 --> 00:48:00,720
we will at the end of

1284
00:48:04,550 --> 00:48:02,400
some period of time it's maybe a century

1285
00:48:07,510 --> 00:48:04,560
maybe 500 years i don't know but it's

1286
00:48:08,550 --> 00:48:07,520
it's less than a thousand years that

1287
00:48:10,150 --> 00:48:08,560
we will

1288
00:48:12,150 --> 00:48:10,160
either

1289
00:48:15,349 --> 00:48:12,160
come to a new maturity in the way that

1290
00:48:17,910 --> 00:48:15,359
we deal globally with our our technology

1291
00:48:19,109 --> 00:48:17,920
and manage our world-changing technology

1292
00:48:20,790 --> 00:48:19,119
i mean this is what we're dealing with

1293
00:48:24,549 --> 00:48:20,800
we now have technology that can change

1294
00:48:26,150 --> 00:48:24,559
the world so can we handle that and the

1295
00:48:28,470 --> 00:48:26,160
the reason why people represented as a

1296
00:48:30,150 --> 00:48:28,480
bottleneck is because of this in a sense

1297
00:48:32,630 --> 00:48:30,160
it's a choice that we have all these

1298
00:48:35,510 --> 00:48:32,640
ways to limit our future but we also

1299
00:48:38,390 --> 00:48:35,520
have ways to greatly enhance our future

1300
00:48:41,030 --> 00:48:38,400
obviously technology um you know these

1301
00:48:43,670 --> 00:48:41,040
are this is a focus on the negatives but

1302
00:48:45,670 --> 00:48:43,680
you know those of us that that enjoy our

1303
00:48:46,950 --> 00:48:45,680
lifespan and the medical technology we

1304
00:48:49,349 --> 00:48:46,960
live with and like to think that we

1305
00:48:51,910 --> 00:48:49,359
would stop a dangerous asteroid

1306
00:48:54,390 --> 00:48:51,920
in its tracks um recognize that there

1307
00:48:56,309 --> 00:48:54,400
you know there's a dual-sided nature to

1308
00:48:58,470 --> 00:48:56,319
to this and so if you think of it as a

1309
00:49:00,790 --> 00:48:58,480
bottleneck that we could get to the

1310
00:49:03,349 --> 00:49:00,800
other side and have a more mature

1311
00:49:06,150 --> 00:49:03,359
relationship with our technology or that

1312
00:49:07,910 --> 00:49:06,160
a civilization could then that

1313
00:49:10,710 --> 00:49:07,920
introduces another possibility the

1314
00:49:12,870 --> 00:49:10,720
possibility of great longevity where in

1315
00:49:14,870 --> 00:49:12,880
fact natural disasters that otherwise

1316
00:49:16,390 --> 00:49:14,880
would kill us are things that we've

1317
00:49:18,390 --> 00:49:16,400
learned how to handle

1318
00:49:20,710 --> 00:49:18,400
and then that leads to this idea this

1319
00:49:22,870 --> 00:49:20,720
bottleneck idea leads to a sort of

1320
00:49:25,910 --> 00:49:22,880
bifurcation in the lifetime of

1321
00:49:27,190 --> 00:49:25,920
civilizations what do i mean by that oh

1322
00:49:30,309 --> 00:49:27,200
and if this wasn't enough we also have

1323
00:49:32,790 --> 00:49:30,319
to worry about the zombie apocalypse so

1324
00:49:34,870 --> 00:49:32,800
there's really a lot to worry about so

1325
00:49:36,230 --> 00:49:34,880
you know if we if we don't make it

1326
00:49:37,750 --> 00:49:36,240
through this bottleneck you've heard

1327
00:49:39,750 --> 00:49:37,760
about the habitable zone right the

1328
00:49:41,589 --> 00:49:39,760
goldilocks problem well so if we don't

1329
00:49:43,589 --> 00:49:41,599
make it through this bottleneck one way

1330
00:49:45,910 --> 00:49:43,599
of thinking about it is you know mars

1331
00:49:50,630 --> 00:49:45,920
was too hot

1332
00:49:52,630 --> 00:49:50,640
earth was too dumb this is my friend

1333
00:49:54,230 --> 00:49:52,640
my friend john lomberg drew this cartoon

1334
00:49:55,190 --> 00:49:54,240
but there's another possibility of

1335
00:49:56,630 --> 00:49:55,200
course

1336
00:49:58,950 --> 00:49:56,640
and one that i think

1337
00:50:01,190 --> 00:49:58,960
we have no choice but to strive for and

1338
00:50:03,190 --> 00:50:01,200
that is the possibility of

1339
00:50:04,950 --> 00:50:03,200
what i call quasi-immortality

1340
00:50:07,190 --> 00:50:04,960
that if there is this bifurcation in the

1341
00:50:09,430 --> 00:50:07,200
lifetime of civilizations what does a

1342
00:50:10,870 --> 00:50:09,440
civilization look like that has made it

1343
00:50:12,470 --> 00:50:10,880
through the other side of that

1344
00:50:14,309 --> 00:50:12,480
bottleneck that has learned

1345
00:50:17,109 --> 00:50:14,319
really learned to use technology in the

1346
00:50:19,349 --> 00:50:17,119
surf in the service of survival and in

1347
00:50:20,470 --> 00:50:19,359
my view there's a possible

1348
00:50:22,309 --> 00:50:20,480
state that

1349
00:50:23,670 --> 00:50:22,319
even if it's rare maybe most

1350
00:50:25,589 --> 00:50:23,680
civilizations in our state are

1351
00:50:28,390 --> 00:50:25,599
short-lived and maybe technological

1352
00:50:30,230 --> 00:50:28,400
prowess is usually not adaptive but if

1353
00:50:31,910 --> 00:50:30,240
some civilizations if any civilizations

1354
00:50:33,750 --> 00:50:31,920
make it through the transition to being

1355
00:50:35,829 --> 00:50:33,760
a sustainable technological global

1356
00:50:37,829 --> 00:50:35,839
civilization i think they may become

1357
00:50:39,990 --> 00:50:37,839
sort of quasi-immortal and what i mean

1358
00:50:41,430 --> 00:50:40,000
by that is a sort of deep enough

1359
00:50:43,190 --> 00:50:41,440
understanding of nature and

1360
00:50:44,870 --> 00:50:43,200
self-understanding and that may be the

1361
00:50:46,710 --> 00:50:44,880
hard part

1362
00:50:48,470 --> 00:50:46,720
which gives an ability to forestall

1363
00:50:50,470 --> 00:50:48,480
natural disasters

1364
00:50:52,950 --> 00:50:50,480
and even eventually maybe spread beyond

1365
00:50:54,470 --> 00:50:52,960
one planet which gives a certain kind of

1366
00:50:56,950 --> 00:50:54,480
life insurance

1367
00:50:58,630 --> 00:50:56,960
policy and i say quasi-immortality

1368
00:51:00,309 --> 00:50:58,640
because the universe is probably not

1369
00:51:01,990 --> 00:51:00,319
going to last forever and i'm not sure

1370
00:51:04,069 --> 00:51:02,000
even these really

1371
00:51:05,109 --> 00:51:04,079
successful civilizations will be able to

1372
00:51:06,950 --> 00:51:05,119
uh

1373
00:51:08,309 --> 00:51:06,960
deal with that well isaac asimov had a

1374
00:51:09,829 --> 00:51:08,319
good science fiction story about that

1375
00:51:11,670 --> 00:51:09,839
but um

1376
00:51:13,670 --> 00:51:11,680
and so

1377
00:51:15,190 --> 00:51:13,680
i i see i see i'm getting a little late

1378
00:51:17,829 --> 00:51:15,200
on time so i'm not going to go through

1379
00:51:19,270 --> 00:51:17,839
all this really but the point of this

1380
00:51:20,390 --> 00:51:19,280
is getting a little nerdy but if you do

1381
00:51:21,670 --> 00:51:20,400
the math

1382
00:51:23,510 --> 00:51:21,680
and you think about the number of

1383
00:51:25,109 --> 00:51:23,520
civilizations here and you think about

1384
00:51:26,549 --> 00:51:25,119
the lifetime of civilizations the way

1385
00:51:28,150 --> 00:51:26,559
people normally think about this is

1386
00:51:30,309 --> 00:51:28,160
there's some average lifetime which

1387
00:51:32,390 --> 00:51:30,319
people call l but if you really take

1388
00:51:35,109 --> 00:51:32,400
seriously this possibility of the

1389
00:51:37,190 --> 00:51:35,119
transition to a really long lifetime

1390
00:51:39,030 --> 00:51:37,200
then the distribution doesn't look like

1391
00:51:41,109 --> 00:51:39,040
this it's not what we call a gaussian

1392
00:51:43,030 --> 00:51:41,119
with some average there would be a

1393
00:51:45,190 --> 00:51:43,040
gaussian some distribution of the

1394
00:51:46,549 --> 00:51:45,200
short-lived civilizations maybe like

1395
00:51:48,230 --> 00:51:46,559
ours the ones that don't make it through

1396
00:51:50,630 --> 00:51:48,240
the bottleneck but then there's some

1397
00:51:53,109 --> 00:51:50,640
other tail some super long-lived almost

1398
00:51:54,710 --> 00:51:53,119
infinite tale of really long life and

1399
00:51:57,109 --> 00:51:54,720
the interesting thing about that if you

1400
00:51:58,950 --> 00:51:57,119
do the math this this drake equation

1401
00:52:00,710 --> 00:51:58,960
which you've probably heard of which

1402
00:52:02,150 --> 00:52:00,720
calculates the number of communicating

1403
00:52:03,750 --> 00:52:02,160
civilizations based on all these

1404
00:52:04,950 --> 00:52:03,760
different factors about stars and

1405
00:52:07,109 --> 00:52:04,960
planets and the lifetime of

1406
00:52:09,670 --> 00:52:07,119
civilizations it sort of assumes a

1407
00:52:11,829 --> 00:52:09,680
steady state that is it assumes there is

1408
00:52:13,510 --> 00:52:11,839
an average lifetime of the civilization

1409
00:52:14,950 --> 00:52:13,520
and therefore the number you can

1410
00:52:17,430 --> 00:52:14,960
calculate the number but it's not

1411
00:52:19,510 --> 00:52:17,440
changing but if you posit this idea of a

1412
00:52:21,430 --> 00:52:19,520
super long lifetime state that's

1413
00:52:23,270 --> 00:52:21,440
possible then it's not a steady state

1414
00:52:25,670 --> 00:52:23,280
and in fact you calculate that the

1415
00:52:28,470 --> 00:52:25,680
number of civilizations in

1416
00:52:29,750 --> 00:52:28,480
the universe is slowly increasing over

1417
00:52:30,950 --> 00:52:29,760
time

1418
00:52:32,790 --> 00:52:30,960
and if they're

1419
00:52:35,030 --> 00:52:32,800
helping each other out it might even be

1420
00:52:36,630 --> 00:52:35,040
increasing in a non-linear way and then

1421
00:52:38,950 --> 00:52:36,640
you can get to some really bizarre

1422
00:52:42,390 --> 00:52:38,960
possibilities which i won't go into now

1423
00:52:44,950 --> 00:52:42,400
but the bottom line is that well

1424
00:52:47,670 --> 00:52:44,960
one one weird consequence of this is

1425
00:52:49,270 --> 00:52:47,680
that it might be true that the average

1426
00:52:54,150 --> 00:52:49,280
civilization

1427
00:52:56,150 --> 00:52:54,160
is short-lived and yet

1428
00:52:57,589 --> 00:52:56,160
the universe is dominated by these super

1429
00:52:59,190 --> 00:52:57,599
long-lived ones because these

1430
00:53:00,710 --> 00:52:59,200
quasi-immortals they're sort of like

1431
00:53:03,030 --> 00:53:00,720
vampires and that you can create them

1432
00:53:04,790 --> 00:53:03,040
but you can't destroy them and so they

1433
00:53:06,870 --> 00:53:04,800
slowly accumulate

1434
00:53:08,630 --> 00:53:06,880
and so what that means possibly is that

1435
00:53:09,750 --> 00:53:08,640
the human process we're used to thinking

1436
00:53:12,150 --> 00:53:09,760
of l

1437
00:53:13,670 --> 00:53:12,160
as our own future lifetime the people

1438
00:53:16,230 --> 00:53:13,680
that really came up with this math

1439
00:53:17,829 --> 00:53:16,240
people like carl sagan and frank drake

1440
00:53:19,829 --> 00:53:17,839
and others they used to talk about

1441
00:53:21,589 --> 00:53:19,839
nuclear war and if we blow ourselves up

1442
00:53:24,230 --> 00:53:21,599
in a nuclear war that means l might be

1443
00:53:25,270 --> 00:53:24,240
really short like 50 years or 100 years

1444
00:53:27,270 --> 00:53:25,280
and therefore there aren't any

1445
00:53:27,990 --> 00:53:27,280
civilizations out there

1446
00:53:29,589 --> 00:53:28,000
so

1447
00:53:31,750 --> 00:53:29,599
there was this inherent

1448
00:53:34,230 --> 00:53:31,760
coupling of l

1449
00:53:35,910 --> 00:53:34,240
with our own prospect but but this

1450
00:53:37,670 --> 00:53:35,920
picture actually means that the human

1451
00:53:38,950 --> 00:53:37,680
prospect is not necessarily closely

1452
00:53:41,510 --> 00:53:38,960
linked to the likely abundance of

1453
00:53:42,470 --> 00:53:41,520
long-lived civilizations that is it may

1454
00:53:43,270 --> 00:53:42,480
well be

1455
00:53:46,230 --> 00:53:43,280
that

1456
00:53:48,470 --> 00:53:46,240
glorious future out there for

1457
00:53:52,470 --> 00:53:48,480
intelligent life but just we may not get

1458
00:53:54,150 --> 00:53:52,480
to join the party or as um and my slide

1459
00:53:56,309 --> 00:53:54,160
might be cut off on the bottom here but

1460
00:53:58,549 --> 00:53:56,319
but as uh franz kafka put it oh there it

1461
00:54:00,390 --> 00:53:58,559
is yeah that there is hope there's an

1462
00:54:03,349 --> 00:54:00,400
infinite amount of hope in the universe

1463
00:54:07,670 --> 00:54:05,990
that's one possibility

1464
00:54:11,910 --> 00:54:07,680
so

1465
00:54:13,670 --> 00:54:11,920
the debates what we call the ant what i

1466
00:54:15,910 --> 00:54:13,680
what i call the anthropocene debates

1467
00:54:18,549 --> 00:54:15,920
this this concept of the anthropocene

1468
00:54:20,390 --> 00:54:18,559
has stimulated a lot of interesting and

1469
00:54:21,589 --> 00:54:20,400
some less interesting discussions the

1470
00:54:22,950 --> 00:54:21,599
least interesting is how do you

1471
00:54:25,510 --> 00:54:22,960
pronounce it some people say

1472
00:54:27,750 --> 00:54:25,520
anthropocene and thrombocene if you're

1473
00:54:29,910 --> 00:54:27,760
british or anthropocene

1474
00:54:32,950 --> 00:54:29,920
i don't really care um

1475
00:54:33,910 --> 00:54:32,960
should it be an official geologic era

1476
00:54:35,670 --> 00:54:33,920
that

1477
00:54:37,990 --> 00:54:35,680
to me has become a little bit less

1478
00:54:40,390 --> 00:54:38,000
interesting too many articles magazine

1479
00:54:42,309 --> 00:54:40,400
articles have focused on this debate i

1480
00:54:44,309 --> 00:54:42,319
think it almost doesn't matter now

1481
00:54:45,829 --> 00:54:44,319
whether that official commission on

1482
00:54:48,150 --> 00:54:45,839
stratigraphy

1483
00:54:50,390 --> 00:54:48,160
adopts this or not because it's become

1484
00:54:52,549 --> 00:54:50,400
something that not only geologists but

1485
00:54:54,150 --> 00:54:52,559
historians and archaeologists and

1486
00:54:55,829 --> 00:54:54,160
ethicists and philosophers are

1487
00:54:57,430 --> 00:54:55,839
discussing and it's a worthwhile

1488
00:54:59,670 --> 00:54:57,440
discussion to think of ourselves in

1489
00:55:01,349 --> 00:54:59,680
geologic time and think of ourselves as

1490
00:55:03,589 --> 00:55:01,359
a geologic force

1491
00:55:05,270 --> 00:55:03,599
whether or not it becomes official now

1492
00:55:08,230 --> 00:55:05,280
when did it start that's an interesting

1493
00:55:10,230 --> 00:55:08,240
one i'll come back to that in a minute

1494
00:55:12,230 --> 00:55:10,240
and do we need to fundamentally rethink

1495
00:55:14,230 --> 00:55:12,240
the nature of nature to me this is

1496
00:55:15,910 --> 00:55:14,240
perhaps the most interesting part of

1497
00:55:18,390 --> 00:55:15,920
this

1498
00:55:20,069 --> 00:55:18,400
when you start realizing that we live on

1499
00:55:22,150 --> 00:55:20,079
a planet that we ourselves have been

1500
00:55:23,990 --> 00:55:22,160
profoundly altering

1501
00:55:26,390 --> 00:55:24,000
you start realizing that in some way

1502
00:55:28,150 --> 00:55:26,400
some ways the comfortable dichotomies

1503
00:55:30,950 --> 00:55:28,160
that we're used to thinking of don't

1504
00:55:32,710 --> 00:55:30,960
completely work anymore and for instance

1505
00:55:36,069 --> 00:55:32,720
the divide between what is natural and

1506
00:55:37,750 --> 00:55:36,079
what is artifact well for one thing

1507
00:55:40,069 --> 00:55:37,760
we're products of evolution right so

1508
00:55:42,230 --> 00:55:40,079
we're natural so therefore the things we

1509
00:55:45,750 --> 00:55:42,240
do are natural in a certain sense but

1510
00:55:48,069 --> 00:55:45,760
also in a world where there is nothing

1511
00:55:50,470 --> 00:55:48,079
like it or not really untouched by human

1512
00:55:52,870 --> 00:55:50,480
civilization anymore what does it really

1513
00:55:56,470 --> 00:55:52,880
mean completely when we use the word

1514
00:55:58,390 --> 00:55:56,480
natural and also this is filtered into

1515
00:56:02,549 --> 00:55:58,400
some really interesting debates in the

1516
00:56:05,030 --> 00:56:02,559
conservation and environmental community

1517
00:56:07,750 --> 00:56:05,040
have we been sort of too nostalgic in

1518
00:56:10,470 --> 00:56:07,760
our views of conservation where a lot of

1519
00:56:13,030 --> 00:56:10,480
the talk is of trying to restore some

1520
00:56:15,270 --> 00:56:13,040
pristine pre-human time

1521
00:56:17,270 --> 00:56:15,280
but when you really look for that and

1522
00:56:19,190 --> 00:56:17,280
look for that moment in history it's

1523
00:56:21,030 --> 00:56:19,200
hard to even find what it is we're

1524
00:56:22,630 --> 00:56:21,040
seeking and maybe

1525
00:56:24,950 --> 00:56:22,640
it would be more fruitful to look at the

1526
00:56:26,470 --> 00:56:24,960
world as it actually is now and instead

1527
00:56:28,870 --> 00:56:26,480
of thinking about the past think about

1528
00:56:30,870 --> 00:56:28,880
the future what is it we want to enhance

1529
00:56:32,190 --> 00:56:30,880
what is it we want to preserve and so

1530
00:56:34,230 --> 00:56:32,200
there's this talk of sort of

1531
00:56:36,630 --> 00:56:34,240
eco-pragmatism and and some of these

1532
00:56:40,950 --> 00:56:36,640
debates have really sort of shaken up

1533
00:56:43,829 --> 00:56:40,960
the environmental community

1534
00:56:45,750 --> 00:56:43,839
a lot of people respond negatively to

1535
00:56:47,589 --> 00:56:45,760
the notion of the anthropocene

1536
00:56:49,270 --> 00:56:47,599
it's easy to understand in some ways

1537
00:56:51,270 --> 00:56:49,280
it's a very offensive notion if you're

1538
00:56:52,950 --> 00:56:51,280
not offended in a certain sense you're

1539
00:56:55,670 --> 00:56:52,960
not paying attention

1540
00:56:58,549 --> 00:56:55,680
is it just a narcissistic

1541
00:57:01,109 --> 00:56:58,559
idea who are we to name a geological

1542
00:57:02,710 --> 00:57:01,119
period after ourselves

1543
00:57:04,950 --> 00:57:02,720
it sort of carries an obnoxious

1544
00:57:07,589 --> 00:57:04,960
implication do we think we're we're sort

1545
00:57:09,190 --> 00:57:07,599
of gods now do we think we deserve to be

1546
00:57:11,349 --> 00:57:09,200
in charge

1547
00:57:13,190 --> 00:57:11,359
i mean in reality it's in my view it's

1548
00:57:14,630 --> 00:57:13,200
not about whether we deserve

1549
00:57:17,030 --> 00:57:14,640
this or whether

1550
00:57:19,430 --> 00:57:17,040
we want to play this role it's more

1551
00:57:21,870 --> 00:57:19,440
waking up and recognizing that we're in

1552
00:57:24,470 --> 00:57:21,880
this position and we better assume that

1553
00:57:27,990 --> 00:57:24,480
responsibility but you can understand

1554
00:57:29,750 --> 00:57:28,000
why this is is a bothersome notion it

1555
00:57:32,390 --> 00:57:29,760
sort of smacks uncomfortably of a

1556
00:57:33,670 --> 00:57:32,400
biblical world created just for us and

1557
00:57:35,829 --> 00:57:33,680
in certain sense

1558
00:57:37,670 --> 00:57:35,839
it's going backwards and that science

1559
00:57:39,589 --> 00:57:37,680
has led us in exactly the opposite

1560
00:57:41,750 --> 00:57:39,599
direction of this notion of ourselves as

1561
00:57:44,230 --> 00:57:41,760
being central you can think of what carl

1562
00:57:45,589 --> 00:57:44,240
sagan called the great emotions

1563
00:57:47,190 --> 00:57:45,599
right if you think of the major

1564
00:57:48,549 --> 00:57:47,200
accomplishments of the scientific

1565
00:57:49,910 --> 00:57:48,559
revolution

1566
00:57:51,430 --> 00:57:49,920
galileo

1567
00:57:53,990 --> 00:57:51,440
showing us that the earth wasn't the

1568
00:57:56,470 --> 00:57:54,000
center of the universe darwin showing us

1569
00:57:59,510 --> 00:57:56,480
that humans were not some special

1570
00:58:01,670 --> 00:57:59,520
distinct species but were related to the

1571
00:58:03,109 --> 00:58:01,680
history of all life

1572
00:58:06,069 --> 00:58:03,119
and we've learned that even more

1573
00:58:08,390 --> 00:58:06,079
profoundly with modern molecular biology

1574
00:58:11,030 --> 00:58:08,400
and with the wonders

1575
00:58:13,190 --> 00:58:11,040
produced by the hubble space telescope

1576
00:58:15,270 --> 00:58:13,200
from operated from right here in

1577
00:58:17,430 --> 00:58:15,280
baltimore we've learned

1578
00:58:20,309 --> 00:58:17,440
that this universe we live in is

1579
00:58:22,470 --> 00:58:20,319
incredibly vast and incredibly old and

1580
00:58:24,309 --> 00:58:22,480
we were not even here for most of the

1581
00:58:26,150 --> 00:58:24,319
story for almost all of the story we

1582
00:58:28,069 --> 00:58:26,160
weren't here so there's no way this

1583
00:58:30,150 --> 00:58:28,079
story could be about us

1584
00:58:32,230 --> 00:58:30,160
we've learned all of this and carl sagan

1585
00:58:34,309 --> 00:58:32,240
said famously it is far better to grasp

1586
00:58:36,069 --> 00:58:34,319
the universe the way it really is than

1587
00:58:38,390 --> 00:58:36,079
to persist in delusions however

1588
00:58:39,750 --> 00:58:38,400
satisfying and reassuring

1589
00:58:41,750 --> 00:58:39,760
so that's what he meant by the great

1590
00:58:43,910 --> 00:58:41,760
demotions and now what we're giving

1591
00:58:45,910 --> 00:58:43,920
ourselves a great promotion we're saying

1592
00:58:47,270 --> 00:58:45,920
we're the center of it all

1593
00:58:48,710 --> 00:58:47,280
um

1594
00:58:50,069 --> 00:58:48,720
is that what we're doing i mean does

1595
00:58:51,829 --> 00:58:50,079
this place us back in the center of the

1596
00:58:54,549 --> 00:58:51,839
story and the answer is yes it kind of

1597
00:58:56,870 --> 00:58:54,559
does and yes that is very disturbing but

1598
00:58:59,190 --> 00:58:56,880
the point of science as carl did like to

1599
00:59:00,789 --> 00:58:59,200
remind us is not to comfort ourselves

1600
00:59:02,390 --> 00:59:00,799
with what feels good but to try to see

1601
00:59:04,069 --> 00:59:02,400
things as they really are

1602
00:59:05,829 --> 00:59:04,079
and then deal honestly with what we've

1603
00:59:07,829 --> 00:59:05,839
learned and you can turn this quote

1604
00:59:09,190 --> 00:59:07,839
around if we want to grasp the universe

1605
00:59:11,030 --> 00:59:09,200
the way it really is we have to look at

1606
00:59:12,870 --> 00:59:11,040
what's really going on on earth and

1607
00:59:14,870 --> 00:59:12,880
whether we like it or not we are a big

1608
00:59:16,069 --> 00:59:14,880
part of the story right now if we add up

1609
00:59:17,670 --> 00:59:16,079
the evidence

1610
00:59:19,190 --> 00:59:17,680
earth science has to recognize the

1611
00:59:21,230 --> 00:59:19,200
answer scene because the rules have

1612
00:59:24,630 --> 00:59:21,240
changed and the earth is becoming

1613
00:59:26,390 --> 00:59:24,640
unrecognizable so

1614
00:59:28,309 --> 00:59:26,400
a lot of people again have had a strong

1615
00:59:29,750 --> 00:59:28,319
response against this in fact here's

1616
00:59:31,510 --> 00:59:29,760
something that was published recently by

1617
00:59:33,910 --> 00:59:31,520
an environmental philosopher

1618
00:59:35,990 --> 00:59:33,920
whose name is kathleen dean moore she

1619
00:59:39,589 --> 00:59:36,000
called this anthropocene is the wrong

1620
00:59:41,910 --> 00:59:39,599
word and she talks here about

1621
00:59:45,030 --> 00:59:41,920
how yes we're bringing the holocene to a

1622
00:59:46,950 --> 00:59:45,040
dismal end and you can read this

1623
00:59:47,829 --> 00:59:46,960
yourself she's talking about you know

1624
00:59:49,910 --> 00:59:47,839
how

1625
00:59:51,910 --> 00:59:49,920
we we've doomed ourselves and destroyed

1626
00:59:54,230 --> 00:59:51,920
the prospects of all other beings and

1627
00:59:57,030 --> 00:59:54,240
you know basically as a an eloquent

1628
00:59:59,670 --> 00:59:57,040
summary here of this moral monstrosity

1629
01:00:01,190 --> 00:59:59,680
that we are you know it's pretty

1630
01:00:03,670 --> 01:00:01,200
anti-human and you can sort of

1631
01:00:05,750 --> 01:00:03,680
understand why and she suggests no we

1632
01:00:07,990 --> 01:00:05,760
should call this the unforgivable crime

1633
01:00:11,030 --> 01:00:08,000
scene or even just

1634
01:00:13,030 --> 01:00:11,040
the obscene epoch

1635
01:00:14,390 --> 01:00:13,040
now she's got a point

1636
01:00:17,270 --> 01:00:14,400
but

1637
01:00:19,510 --> 01:00:17,280
i worry about this anti-humanism as a

1638
01:00:21,030 --> 01:00:19,520
major theme in the way we talk about the

1639
01:00:23,430 --> 01:00:21,040
environment about what's happening on

1640
01:00:25,990 --> 01:00:23,440
earth if you look at the metaphors we

1641
01:00:28,710 --> 01:00:26,000
typically use to describe the human

1642
01:00:30,630 --> 01:00:28,720
imprint on earth there we talk about

1643
01:00:33,270 --> 01:00:30,640
we're a cancer on the earth we're a

1644
01:00:35,430 --> 01:00:33,280
virus where criminals were raping and

1645
01:00:37,910 --> 01:00:35,440
murdering those rainforests and i mean

1646
01:00:39,750 --> 01:00:37,920
you can understand the origin of these

1647
01:00:41,589 --> 01:00:39,760
there's a truth to this if you look at

1648
01:00:43,750 --> 01:00:41,599
the patterns of our development there is

1649
01:00:46,069 --> 01:00:43,760
a lot that's sort of cancer-like and

1650
01:00:48,470 --> 01:00:46,079
yeah when i when i hear about the

1651
01:00:51,349 --> 01:00:48,480
imminent

1652
01:00:53,349 --> 01:00:51,359
extinction of some great species of

1653
01:00:55,270 --> 01:00:53,359
african rhinos or the way that the

1654
01:00:56,549 --> 01:00:55,280
elephants are are threatened or the big

1655
01:00:58,630 --> 01:00:56,559
cats are threatened and those are just

1656
01:01:00,630 --> 01:00:58,640
the charismatic species so many others

1657
01:01:03,349 --> 01:01:00,640
than this mass extinction were causing

1658
01:01:04,150 --> 01:01:03,359
it is a kind of crime but i just think

1659
01:01:06,950 --> 01:01:04,160
that

1660
01:01:09,589 --> 01:01:06,960
these metaphors for ourselves

1661
01:01:11,670 --> 01:01:09,599
are maybe not the most helpful as we go

1662
01:01:12,710 --> 01:01:11,680
into the future can we think of

1663
01:01:14,630 --> 01:01:12,720
ourselves

1664
01:01:17,510 --> 01:01:14,640
can we recognize the position that we're

1665
01:01:19,910 --> 01:01:17,520
in and yet think of some other ways to

1666
01:01:20,870 --> 01:01:19,920
envision ourselves that help us

1667
01:01:22,870 --> 01:01:20,880
carry

1668
01:01:24,710 --> 01:01:22,880
into the future a more positive view of

1669
01:01:26,630 --> 01:01:24,720
the imprint that we should be having

1670
01:01:28,710 --> 01:01:26,640
that we could have on the earth and i

1671
01:01:30,230 --> 01:01:28,720
don't know exactly but i've toyed with

1672
01:01:31,829 --> 01:01:30,240
and i'm not the first to suggest some of

1673
01:01:32,950 --> 01:01:31,839
these in a certain sense we're like

1674
01:01:35,670 --> 01:01:32,960
babies

1675
01:01:37,349 --> 01:01:35,680
here we are nobody's ever taught us how

1676
01:01:39,109 --> 01:01:37,359
to run a biosphere we don't know what

1677
01:01:41,270 --> 01:01:39,119
we're doing but we find ourselves here

1678
01:01:42,710 --> 01:01:41,280
and we better learn to get good at it or

1679
01:01:45,270 --> 01:01:42,720
it's almost

1680
01:01:48,630 --> 01:01:45,280
like somebody who wakes up at the wheel

1681
01:01:50,470 --> 01:01:48,640
driving a heavy truck down a road

1682
01:01:52,549 --> 01:01:50,480
and it's going well i don't need i don't

1683
01:01:54,630 --> 01:01:52,559
know how to drive but here i am what do

1684
01:01:56,390 --> 01:01:54,640
i do i mean that's almost the situation

1685
01:01:59,910 --> 01:01:56,400
we are on this planet like it or not we

1686
01:02:02,470 --> 01:01:59,920
have to learn how to drive this thing

1687
01:02:05,030 --> 01:02:02,480
um i have a couple other metaphors but

1688
01:02:07,430 --> 01:02:05,040
i'm running on time so maybe some of you

1689
01:02:08,950 --> 01:02:07,440
know the notion of a generation ship

1690
01:02:10,230 --> 01:02:08,960
because of probably a two or three of

1691
01:02:12,069 --> 01:02:10,240
you i see a couple nodding heads or

1692
01:02:13,349 --> 01:02:12,079
science fiction geeks and in some sense

1693
01:02:15,270 --> 01:02:13,359
i think we're

1694
01:02:16,870 --> 01:02:15,280
on a generation ship and that we're kind

1695
01:02:18,549 --> 01:02:16,880
of waking up to our new reality and

1696
01:02:20,470 --> 01:02:18,559
realizing we have to find the controls

1697
01:02:22,309 --> 01:02:20,480
of this thing and learn how to drive it

1698
01:02:24,710 --> 01:02:22,319
or you could say maybe we're like the

1699
01:02:27,510 --> 01:02:24,720
microbiome of the earth and we want to

1700
01:02:30,150 --> 01:02:27,520
try to be the commensal microbiome

1701
01:02:32,549 --> 01:02:30,160
the good microbes that actually live

1702
01:02:34,470 --> 01:02:32,559
well with our host or in some sense

1703
01:02:36,390 --> 01:02:34,480
we're like the nervous system maybe we

1704
01:02:37,910 --> 01:02:36,400
want to be the brain of the earth these

1705
01:02:40,150 --> 01:02:37,920
are all just sort of different ways to

1706
01:02:42,309 --> 01:02:40,160
think of ourselves that maybe can be a

1707
01:02:43,589 --> 01:02:42,319
little more aspirational

1708
01:02:46,470 --> 01:02:43,599
um

1709
01:02:48,710 --> 01:02:46,480
i'm going to skip a couple things here

1710
01:02:49,910 --> 01:02:48,720
somebody recently said maybe we

1711
01:02:51,910 --> 01:02:49,920
shouldn't think about the footprint but

1712
01:02:53,430 --> 01:02:51,920
the hand print

1713
01:02:54,870 --> 01:02:53,440
after all this is what really makes us

1714
01:02:56,150 --> 01:02:54,880
human

1715
01:02:58,950 --> 01:02:56,160
interesting idea

1716
01:03:00,470 --> 01:02:58,960
um okay so getting back to very briefly

1717
01:03:02,150 --> 01:03:00,480
to this question of when it started

1718
01:03:03,910 --> 01:03:02,160
people have talked about well maybe it

1719
01:03:06,150 --> 01:03:03,920
goes back

1720
01:03:08,470 --> 01:03:06,160
five or even ten thousand years to when

1721
01:03:09,990 --> 01:03:08,480
we we really started or at least five

1722
01:03:12,549 --> 01:03:10,000
thousand years when we started altering

1723
01:03:14,549 --> 01:03:12,559
the landscape with agriculture and in

1724
01:03:16,630 --> 01:03:14,559
fact at that time not only started

1725
01:03:18,470 --> 01:03:16,640
changing the land surface of the planet

1726
01:03:20,470 --> 01:03:18,480
but changing the carbon cycle and

1727
01:03:22,150 --> 01:03:20,480
actually there's evidence that climate

1728
01:03:24,390 --> 01:03:22,160
change by humans has started thousands

1729
01:03:26,470 --> 01:03:24,400
of years ago some people think it should

1730
01:03:28,390 --> 01:03:26,480
have started

1731
01:03:30,470 --> 01:03:28,400
around the beginning of the industrial

1732
01:03:31,910 --> 01:03:30,480
revolution with when steam engines

1733
01:03:34,150 --> 01:03:31,920
started up and we really started using

1734
01:03:35,990 --> 01:03:34,160
fossil fuels and changing the atmosphere

1735
01:03:39,109 --> 01:03:36,000
there's been this idea that we should

1736
01:03:42,470 --> 01:03:39,119
market from the date of the first atomic

1737
01:03:44,789 --> 01:03:42,480
bomb test after all that leaves a nifty

1738
01:03:46,710 --> 01:03:44,799
isotopic signature for future

1739
01:03:49,349 --> 01:03:46,720
generations to find and it certainly has

1740
01:03:50,950 --> 01:03:49,359
a metaphorical potency of our realizing

1741
01:03:53,349 --> 01:03:50,960
our powers

1742
01:03:55,670 --> 01:03:53,359
now these are all interesting moments in

1743
01:03:57,829 --> 01:03:55,680
the development of humanity as a global

1744
01:04:00,309 --> 01:03:57,839
species and unfortunately this is sort

1745
01:04:02,789 --> 01:04:00,319
of devolved into an argument people are

1746
01:04:04,470 --> 01:04:02,799
actually fighting over this is when the

1747
01:04:06,549 --> 01:04:04,480
anthropocene should start no this isn't

1748
01:04:07,990 --> 01:04:06,559
because they want to make it official

1749
01:04:09,750 --> 01:04:08,000
and i think that's a little bit silly

1750
01:04:11,510 --> 01:04:09,760
it's a little bit like arguing over you

1751
01:04:13,109 --> 01:04:11,520
know whether pluto's a planet or not

1752
01:04:15,430 --> 01:04:13,119
because what's interesting is the

1753
01:04:18,069 --> 01:04:15,440
qualities of pluto like objects not what

1754
01:04:19,750 --> 01:04:18,079
we call it right and similarly it's

1755
01:04:21,910 --> 01:04:19,760
interesting to note these different

1756
01:04:24,069 --> 01:04:21,920
stages in human presence on earth and i

1757
01:04:25,430 --> 01:04:24,079
don't really care what they

1758
01:04:27,109 --> 01:04:25,440
you know how that argument comes out

1759
01:04:29,670 --> 01:04:27,119
about what officially gets proclaimed as

1760
01:04:31,990 --> 01:04:29,680
the beginning of the anthropocene but as

1761
01:04:33,750 --> 01:04:32,000
i think about this i've also thought of

1762
01:04:36,150 --> 01:04:33,760
a new way perhaps to think of the

1763
01:04:38,069 --> 01:04:36,160
beginning that that is maybe even a

1764
01:04:40,150 --> 01:04:38,079
little bit more hopeful and that is that

1765
01:04:42,390 --> 01:04:40,160
in a certain sense maybe it's just

1766
01:04:43,990 --> 01:04:42,400
getting started

1767
01:04:45,270 --> 01:04:44,000
maybe it begins with the end of our

1768
01:04:47,029 --> 01:04:45,280
innocence

1769
01:04:48,789 --> 01:04:47,039
with a mass awareness of our role as

1770
01:04:53,750 --> 01:04:48,799
world changers

1771
01:04:56,230 --> 01:04:53,760
this time the anthropocene unprecedented

1772
01:04:58,390 --> 01:04:56,240
here on the planet and worthy of a new

1773
01:05:00,710 --> 01:04:58,400
name is our growing knowledge of what

1774
01:05:03,589 --> 01:05:00,720
we're doing on this planet

1775
01:05:06,150 --> 01:05:03,599
self-aware self-conscious global change

1776
01:05:08,309 --> 01:05:06,160
i think is a completely new phenomenon

1777
01:05:10,309 --> 01:05:08,319
and a remarkable one on this planet and

1778
01:05:13,109 --> 01:05:10,319
so i'm wondering if we can define a new

1779
01:05:14,630 --> 01:05:13,119
phase the mature anthropocene

1780
01:05:16,470 --> 01:05:14,640
marked by that

1781
01:05:17,990 --> 01:05:16,480
fourth kind of planetary change

1782
01:05:20,230 --> 01:05:18,000
intentional

1783
01:05:21,589 --> 01:05:20,240
and regard that as something that we are

1784
01:05:23,990 --> 01:05:21,599
trying to

1785
01:05:26,309 --> 01:05:24,000
bring on in that sense we can think of

1786
01:05:28,069 --> 01:05:26,319
the anthropocene as something to be that

1787
01:05:30,230 --> 01:05:28,079
we should strive for rather than we

1788
01:05:32,470 --> 01:05:30,240
should run away from and in that sense

1789
01:05:33,990 --> 01:05:32,480
also it's just getting started in our

1790
01:05:37,029 --> 01:05:34,000
conversations and what we're doing

1791
01:05:39,270 --> 01:05:37,039
tonight we're hopefully in some tiny way

1792
01:05:41,430 --> 01:05:39,280
helping to bring on the mature

1793
01:05:43,190 --> 01:05:41,440
anthropocene so this is where i get the

1794
01:05:45,750 --> 01:05:43,200
title of my talk in the title of the

1795
01:05:48,069 --> 01:05:45,760
book i'm writing now pterosans it's the

1796
01:05:50,789 --> 01:05:48,079
notion the vision of a wise earth that's

1797
01:05:52,069 --> 01:05:50,799
what these words look literally mean

1798
01:05:53,829 --> 01:05:52,079
and

1799
01:05:56,230 --> 01:05:53,839
in order to get there we have to become

1800
01:05:58,150 --> 01:05:56,240
a new kind of entity on this planet

1801
01:06:00,069 --> 01:05:58,160
we need to learn comfortably need to

1802
01:06:01,510 --> 01:06:00,079
learn to live comfortably

1803
01:06:05,109 --> 01:06:01,520
over the long haul with our world

1804
01:06:06,950 --> 01:06:05,119
changing technology now one

1805
01:06:08,630 --> 01:06:06,960
key to this i think is the widespread

1806
01:06:11,109 --> 01:06:08,640
propagation of a worldview that is

1807
01:06:12,950 --> 01:06:11,119
global and multi-generational

1808
01:06:15,029 --> 01:06:12,960
and one hopeful

1809
01:06:16,950 --> 01:06:15,039
truth is that i see this worldview

1810
01:06:18,630 --> 01:06:16,960
developing i mean it's very easy to get

1811
01:06:21,589 --> 01:06:18,640
discouraged

1812
01:06:22,710 --> 01:06:21,599
but the fact is with these little gizmos

1813
01:06:24,870 --> 01:06:22,720
that we can

1814
01:06:27,109 --> 01:06:24,880
pull out of our pockets and have an

1815
01:06:29,829 --> 01:06:27,119
instant conversation with somebody in

1816
01:06:33,029 --> 01:06:29,839
egypt about what's happening and pull up

1817
01:06:35,029 --> 01:06:33,039
any data set from any satellite

1818
01:06:37,109 --> 01:06:35,039
orbiting the earth we are becoming a new

1819
01:06:38,789 --> 01:06:37,119
kind of entity a globally connected

1820
01:06:42,789 --> 01:06:38,799
communicating

1821
01:06:44,069 --> 01:06:42,799
data exchanging entity and that change

1822
01:06:46,069 --> 01:06:44,079
is not

1823
01:06:48,150 --> 01:06:46,079
necessarily completely apparent when you

1824
01:06:50,069 --> 01:06:48,160
read the newspaper every day and yet it

1825
01:06:51,829 --> 01:06:50,079
it is happening is it happening enough

1826
01:06:53,910 --> 01:06:51,839
is it happening fast enough i don't know

1827
01:06:56,309 --> 01:06:53,920
but i think there is a profound change

1828
01:06:59,670 --> 01:06:56,319
occurring in the way we relate globally

1829
01:07:01,109 --> 01:06:59,680
to one another and to our future and one

1830
01:07:02,789 --> 01:07:01,119
question one interesting question as a

1831
01:07:05,270 --> 01:07:02,799
scientist especially i think what is the

1832
01:07:07,029 --> 01:07:05,280
role of science in this

1833
01:07:08,789 --> 01:07:07,039
and there's been a lot of discussion

1834
01:07:10,710 --> 01:07:08,799
lately in the community about how should

1835
01:07:11,829 --> 01:07:10,720
scientists be activists

1836
01:07:13,670 --> 01:07:11,839
you know when we're worried about

1837
01:07:15,430 --> 01:07:13,680
climate and so forth and it's an

1838
01:07:17,270 --> 01:07:15,440
interesting question because there's

1839
01:07:19,029 --> 01:07:17,280
dangers there i mean when you see an

1840
01:07:20,549 --> 01:07:19,039
emergency you want to do something about

1841
01:07:23,990 --> 01:07:20,559
it you don't just want to

1842
01:07:24,870 --> 01:07:24,000
model it right but at the same time

1843
01:07:28,470 --> 01:07:24,880
we

1844
01:07:31,029 --> 01:07:28,480
strive to be a sort of objective voice

1845
01:07:32,950 --> 01:07:31,039
and so what is the proper role it's not

1846
01:07:35,670 --> 01:07:32,960
completely clear it's an interesting

1847
01:07:37,510 --> 01:07:35,680
question but one thing that i find

1848
01:07:39,430 --> 01:07:37,520
hopeful is that i think just by doing

1849
01:07:41,349 --> 01:07:39,440
science and communicating science

1850
01:07:44,069 --> 01:07:41,359
science itself does lead to certain

1851
01:07:45,990 --> 01:07:44,079
values that may actually be the ones the

1852
01:07:47,510 --> 01:07:46,000
very ones that humanity needs to survive

1853
01:07:49,190 --> 01:07:47,520
this transition because when we look at

1854
01:07:50,789 --> 01:07:49,200
earth from space

1855
01:07:52,789 --> 01:07:50,799
say with satellites it doesn't look like

1856
01:07:55,589 --> 01:07:52,799
this it looks like this

1857
01:07:56,470 --> 01:07:55,599
and what we see what science reveals is

1858
01:07:58,870 --> 01:07:56,480
this

1859
01:08:02,230 --> 01:07:58,880
global system of connected cycles and

1860
01:08:04,950 --> 01:08:02,240
these long this the reality of the world

1861
01:08:07,190 --> 01:08:04,960
revealed by science is long-term and

1862
01:08:09,910 --> 01:08:07,200
global that's what we notice when we

1863
01:08:10,710 --> 01:08:09,920
study the earth so science by itself i

1864
01:08:11,750 --> 01:08:10,720
think

1865
01:08:13,270 --> 01:08:11,760
just by

1866
01:08:15,190 --> 01:08:13,280
doing what we do and communicating what

1867
01:08:16,229 --> 01:08:15,200
we do it promotes a worldview that is

1868
01:08:17,829 --> 01:08:16,239
global

1869
01:08:19,669 --> 01:08:17,839
and multi-generational just the world

1870
01:08:21,910 --> 01:08:19,679
view i think that we need

1871
01:08:24,149 --> 01:08:21,920
so it's true science is deeply

1872
01:08:27,110 --> 01:08:24,159
implicated in the answer scene we have a

1873
01:08:28,950 --> 01:08:27,120
responsibility we through technology

1874
01:08:30,070 --> 01:08:28,960
which has a tight relationship with

1875
01:08:34,309 --> 01:08:30,080
science

1876
01:08:36,630 --> 01:08:34,319
thing but they're like that

1877
01:08:38,390 --> 01:08:36,640
we have helped to bring on this great

1878
01:08:39,990 --> 01:08:38,400
acceleration we wouldn't be in this mess

1879
01:08:42,470 --> 01:08:40,000
without science but i think we won't

1880
01:08:45,349 --> 01:08:42,480
survive without a lot more of it and

1881
01:08:47,030 --> 01:08:45,359
without the world view that it naturally

1882
01:08:47,829 --> 01:08:47,040
encourages

1883
01:08:49,910 --> 01:08:47,839
now

1884
01:08:51,430 --> 01:08:49,920
i'm finishing up here but

1885
01:08:53,910 --> 01:08:51,440
one of the joys of working in the

1886
01:08:55,510 --> 01:08:53,920
library of congress over the last year

1887
01:08:58,149 --> 01:08:55,520
has been

1888
01:08:59,749 --> 01:08:58,159
well there's a lot of books there

1889
01:09:02,789 --> 01:08:59,759
and i've gotten to read a lot of them

1890
01:09:03,990 --> 01:09:02,799
and one of my sort of pet side projects

1891
01:09:06,229 --> 01:09:04,000
has been

1892
01:09:08,470 --> 01:09:06,239
something that i think i'll incorporate

1893
01:09:10,470 --> 01:09:08,480
as sort of a a chapter or a section of

1894
01:09:13,189 --> 01:09:10,480
this book i'm writing and i call it a

1895
01:09:14,630 --> 01:09:13,199
brief history of the future

1896
01:09:17,430 --> 01:09:14,640
where i've been reading a lot of books

1897
01:09:18,709 --> 01:09:17,440
about the future written in the past

1898
01:09:20,390 --> 01:09:18,719
because it's very interesting to see

1899
01:09:22,550 --> 01:09:20,400
what people say a hundred years ago said

1900
01:09:24,950 --> 01:09:22,560
about now and what kinds of things they

1901
01:09:27,189 --> 01:09:24,960
predicted and how people get the future

1902
01:09:29,590 --> 01:09:27,199
right and how they get it wrong

1903
01:09:31,829 --> 01:09:29,600
and use that to try to illuminate how

1904
01:09:33,590 --> 01:09:31,839
we're thinking about the future now

1905
01:09:35,829 --> 01:09:33,600
and it's very interesting a lot of smart

1906
01:09:37,030 --> 01:09:35,839
people said a lot of very prescient

1907
01:09:39,189 --> 01:09:37,040
things

1908
01:09:41,349 --> 01:09:39,199
about where we would be now say a

1909
01:09:43,110 --> 01:09:41,359
hundred years ago but they also missed a

1910
01:09:44,709 --> 01:09:43,120
lot and of course what they miss are the

1911
01:09:46,870 --> 01:09:44,719
game changers

1912
01:09:48,870 --> 01:09:46,880
and nobody really gets it right and and

1913
01:09:51,510 --> 01:09:48,880
out of this exercise i've become

1914
01:09:53,269 --> 01:09:51,520
convinced that nobody's right about the

1915
01:09:55,110 --> 01:09:53,279
world 100 years from now the climate

1916
01:09:57,350 --> 01:09:55,120
modelers aren't right the politicians

1917
01:09:59,750 --> 01:09:57,360
aren't right the prophets of doom aren't

1918
01:10:01,510 --> 01:09:59,760
right the techno utopians aren't right

1919
01:10:03,189 --> 01:10:01,520
we don't know and i bet you i'm looking

1920
01:10:05,030 --> 01:10:03,199
back a hundred years that that's the one

1921
01:10:07,270 --> 01:10:05,040
prediction i feel like i can safely say

1922
01:10:08,950 --> 01:10:07,280
we don't know and that that uncertainty

1923
01:10:10,310 --> 01:10:08,960
though gives i think gives us a little

1924
01:10:11,830 --> 01:10:10,320
room for hope

1925
01:10:14,310 --> 01:10:11,840
you know we can't say that we're

1926
01:10:16,630 --> 01:10:14,320
certainly doomed because because the

1927
01:10:18,470 --> 01:10:16,640
future's just so uncertain but

1928
01:10:19,990 --> 01:10:18,480
this book in particular was one of the

1929
01:10:22,070 --> 01:10:20,000
one of my favorites that i've read in

1930
01:10:24,070 --> 01:10:22,080
this sort of brief history of the future

1931
01:10:26,229 --> 01:10:24,080
it's by jd bernal

1932
01:10:27,669 --> 01:10:26,239
um and and it was it's called the world

1933
01:10:28,950 --> 01:10:27,679
the flesh and the devil and i don't have

1934
01:10:30,270 --> 01:10:28,960
the date here but i think it was written

1935
01:10:34,229 --> 01:10:30,280
around

1936
01:10:35,910 --> 01:10:34,239
1926 or 28. um and no less the sage than

1937
01:10:38,310 --> 01:10:35,920
arthur c clarke called this book the

1938
01:10:40,550 --> 01:10:38,320
most brilliant attempt at scientific

1939
01:10:42,950 --> 01:10:40,560
prediction ever made so that's a pretty

1940
01:10:44,709 --> 01:10:42,960
strong endorsement by sir arthur and

1941
01:10:46,390 --> 01:10:44,719
just i recommend the book it's really

1942
01:10:47,669 --> 01:10:46,400
good but just in case you don't get to

1943
01:10:49,910 --> 01:10:47,679
read it i'm going to give you a little

1944
01:10:52,229 --> 01:10:49,920
spoiler here here's the very end of the

1945
01:10:55,270 --> 01:10:52,239
book this is the last paragraph

1946
01:10:57,350 --> 01:10:55,280
jd said we hold the future still timidly

1947
01:10:59,669 --> 01:10:57,360
but perceive it for the first time as a

1948
01:11:01,510 --> 01:10:59,679
function of our own action

1949
01:11:03,189 --> 01:11:01,520
having seen it are we to turn away from

1950
01:11:05,430 --> 01:11:03,199
something that offends the very nature

1951
01:11:07,590 --> 01:11:05,440
of our earliest desires

1952
01:11:10,310 --> 01:11:07,600
or is the recognition of our new powers

1953
01:11:12,390 --> 01:11:10,320
sufficient to change those desires into

1954
01:11:14,149 --> 01:11:12,400
the service of the future which they

1955
01:11:17,430 --> 01:11:14,159
will have to bring about

1956
01:11:22,070 --> 01:11:19,430
technological innovation is changing our

1957
01:11:24,630 --> 01:11:22,080
world in surprising accelerating and

1958
01:11:27,189 --> 01:11:24,640
unpredictable ways and possibilities

1959
01:11:29,110 --> 01:11:27,199
that until recently seem magical

1960
01:11:30,550 --> 01:11:29,120
are now imminent

1961
01:11:32,870 --> 01:11:30,560
so the future is frightening and

1962
01:11:34,310 --> 01:11:32,880
exhilarating but above all it really is

1963
01:11:38,070 --> 01:11:34,320
unpredictable and this uncertainty

1964
01:11:40,229 --> 01:11:38,080
leaves us room for hope and for choice

1965
01:11:41,750 --> 01:11:40,239
and faith in ourselves

1966
01:11:44,070 --> 01:11:41,760
personally my view is that we're just

1967
01:11:45,750 --> 01:11:44,080
getting started on this planet

1968
01:11:47,750 --> 01:11:45,760
and a quote from the

1969
01:11:49,830 --> 01:11:47,760
shakespeare library which i walk past

1970
01:11:52,310 --> 01:11:49,840
every day on my way to work now is

1971
01:11:53,590 --> 01:11:52,320
we know what we are but know not what we

1972
01:12:10,149 --> 01:11:53,600
may be

1973
01:12:13,430 --> 01:12:11,510
microphone here

1974
01:12:15,590 --> 01:12:13,440
all right i'm sure uh

1975
01:12:17,990 --> 01:12:15,600
you all have a lot to think about from

1976
01:12:19,270 --> 01:12:18,000
this talk here and i'm sure there are a

1977
01:12:34,830 --> 01:12:19,280
few questions because we always have

1978
01:12:38,550 --> 01:12:36,390
yes

1979
01:12:40,390 --> 01:12:38,560
i'm always interested to read about

1980
01:12:41,590 --> 01:12:40,400
people who are looking for life

1981
01:12:43,910 --> 01:12:41,600
elsewhere

1982
01:12:45,590 --> 01:12:43,920
but why couldn't there be dry life up

1983
01:12:48,870 --> 01:12:45,600
here why do we have to be looking for

1984
01:12:51,990 --> 01:12:48,880
water uh just a thought and

1985
01:12:53,910 --> 01:12:52,000
and so so2 could be the same thing as

1986
01:12:56,149 --> 01:12:53,920
methane is to us

1987
01:12:57,830 --> 01:12:56,159
or something that didn't generate water

1988
01:13:00,310 --> 01:12:57,840
as long as you had a reason

1989
01:13:02,149 --> 01:13:00,320
so why are you getting yeah

1990
01:13:03,669 --> 01:13:02,159
great great question i think i want to

1991
01:13:05,110 --> 01:13:03,679
repeat it to make sure that's what i was

1992
01:13:07,990 --> 01:13:05,120
going to do yeah go ahead

1993
01:13:10,149 --> 01:13:08,000
my mom and dad can hear it

1994
01:13:12,310 --> 01:13:10,159
the question is

1995
01:13:15,110 --> 01:13:12,320
why are we we guys

1996
01:13:16,550 --> 01:13:15,120
and gals always looking for water-based

1997
01:13:21,590 --> 01:13:16,560
life

1998
01:13:23,590 --> 01:13:21,600
out there in the universe why are we so

1999
01:13:25,910 --> 01:13:23,600
narrow-minded as to assume that life

2000
01:13:28,709 --> 01:13:25,920
chemically needs the same things that we

2001
01:13:31,110 --> 01:13:28,719
need it's a great question and i think

2002
01:13:32,950 --> 01:13:31,120
you're right to ask it and i think that

2003
01:13:35,430 --> 01:13:32,960
we as a community need to keep it in

2004
01:13:37,590 --> 01:13:35,440
mind and in fact it does come up a lot

2005
01:13:39,430 --> 01:13:37,600
at meetings and so there's a couple of

2006
01:13:41,669 --> 01:13:39,440
answers to your question

2007
01:13:43,830 --> 01:13:41,679
one is that

2008
01:13:45,189 --> 01:13:43,840
a lot of smart people have thought about

2009
01:13:47,510 --> 01:13:45,199
this and in fact there are people who

2010
01:13:49,990 --> 01:13:47,520
study this and work on it and nobody yet

2011
01:13:51,750 --> 01:13:50,000
has come up with another chemical basis

2012
01:13:54,470 --> 01:13:51,760
for life that works as well as carbon

2013
01:13:57,750 --> 01:13:54,480
molecules in water now that may well be

2014
01:13:59,510 --> 01:13:57,760
because we are not as smart as nature

2015
01:14:00,950 --> 01:13:59,520
and nature has a way of cooking things

2016
01:14:02,870 --> 01:14:00,960
up that we can't imagine and then we

2017
01:14:06,229 --> 01:14:02,880
discover them through exploration so we

2018
01:14:09,430 --> 01:14:06,239
have to keep our eyes wide open but i

2019
01:14:10,709 --> 01:14:09,440
think it's safe to say

2020
01:14:12,790 --> 01:14:10,719
it may not be

2021
01:14:14,790 --> 01:14:12,800
definitively true but

2022
01:14:17,430 --> 01:14:14,800
it's a reasonable thing to say that life

2023
01:14:19,030 --> 01:14:17,440
needs a liquid medium that is chemical

2024
01:14:20,870 --> 01:14:19,040
life liquid you know it's hard to

2025
01:14:22,790 --> 01:14:20,880
imagine in a solid because solids

2026
01:14:24,229 --> 01:14:22,800
crystals nothing moves around it's hard

2027
01:14:25,510 --> 01:14:24,239
to imagine it in the gas because

2028
01:14:27,350 --> 01:14:25,520
everything's just flying around all over

2029
01:14:28,870 --> 01:14:27,360
the place a liquid is a good place for

2030
01:14:31,350 --> 01:14:28,880
chemicals to get together and do this

2031
01:14:33,350 --> 01:14:31,360
sort of organized dance that life is now

2032
01:14:34,790 --> 01:14:33,360
what liquids are there in the universe

2033
01:14:36,470 --> 01:14:34,800
there are others there's methane on

2034
01:14:38,390 --> 01:14:36,480
titan there are places where there's

2035
01:14:41,750 --> 01:14:38,400
probably well we know there's ammonia

2036
01:14:43,750 --> 01:14:41,760
water mixtures there's liquid lava so

2037
01:14:45,189 --> 01:14:43,760
could you well but i mean people have

2038
01:14:46,709 --> 01:14:45,199
tried to think about life in these

2039
01:14:48,470 --> 01:14:46,719
different situations and it may be that

2040
01:14:49,990 --> 01:14:48,480
we just haven't come up with it yet but

2041
01:14:52,149 --> 01:14:50,000
there's another answer to the question

2042
01:14:54,229 --> 01:14:52,159
which is more pragmatic you have to

2043
01:14:56,870 --> 01:14:54,239
start the search somewhere and we know

2044
01:14:58,390 --> 01:14:56,880
enough about water-based life even that

2045
01:15:00,149 --> 01:14:58,400
we don't know that much about how it may

2046
01:15:02,470 --> 01:15:00,159
manifest but at least we have some ideas

2047
01:15:03,750 --> 01:15:02,480
about how to start the search now the

2048
01:15:04,950 --> 01:15:03,760
thing we have to be careful is you don't

2049
01:15:06,310 --> 01:15:04,960
want to just be looking for your keys

2050
01:15:08,950 --> 01:15:06,320
under the street light because that's

2051
01:15:10,310 --> 01:15:08,960
where they're easy to find and so

2052
01:15:12,310 --> 01:15:10,320
but a lot of people have thought about

2053
01:15:13,830 --> 01:15:12,320
well how do you find a bio signature a

2054
01:15:16,149 --> 01:15:13,840
signature of life

2055
01:15:18,470 --> 01:15:16,159
somewhere what do you look for that

2056
01:15:20,709 --> 01:15:18,480
isn't assuming that life works just like

2057
01:15:22,709 --> 01:15:20,719
us and what a lot of people have come up

2058
01:15:24,229 --> 01:15:22,719
with is what we call um chemical

2059
01:15:26,870 --> 01:15:24,239
perturbations to an environment or

2060
01:15:29,110 --> 01:15:26,880
non-equilibrium atmospheres that is look

2061
01:15:32,229 --> 01:15:29,120
for a an atmosphere that is

2062
01:15:34,550 --> 01:15:32,239
radically altered as earth's atmosphere

2063
01:15:36,790 --> 01:15:34,560
is from this from the state it would be

2064
01:15:38,709 --> 01:15:36,800
in without something really weird

2065
01:15:40,709 --> 01:15:38,719
affecting it i mean earth would not have

2066
01:15:42,470 --> 01:15:40,719
all this oxygen and other things like

2067
01:15:43,830 --> 01:15:42,480
methane in the atmosphere without life

2068
01:15:45,910 --> 01:15:43,840
so one thing we want to do is just look

2069
01:15:47,510 --> 01:15:45,920
for weird atmospheres

2070
01:15:49,189 --> 01:15:47,520
that could be perturbed by any kind of

2071
01:15:50,709 --> 01:15:49,199
life and then if you find a weird

2072
01:15:52,229 --> 01:15:50,719
atmosphere that doesn't prove you found

2073
01:15:54,790 --> 01:15:52,239
life but it makes you go aha let's study

2074
01:15:57,430 --> 01:15:54,800
this planet more carefully so it's a

2075
01:15:59,110 --> 01:15:57,440
good question we're working on it we

2076
01:16:01,430 --> 01:15:59,120
have this provisional sense that

2077
01:16:03,669 --> 01:16:01,440
water-based life at least is a good kind

2078
01:16:05,910 --> 01:16:03,679
to find water is a very common substance

2079
01:16:07,830 --> 01:16:05,920
does form liquid on some planets but we

2080
01:16:09,669 --> 01:16:07,840
do have to keep your question in mind

2081
01:16:11,669 --> 01:16:09,679
and somewhere in the universe i'm

2082
01:16:12,790 --> 01:16:11,679
willing to bet there is water-based life

2083
01:16:13,750 --> 01:16:12,800
but somewhere in the universe i'm

2084
01:16:15,910 --> 01:16:13,760
willing to bet there's probably

2085
01:16:19,110 --> 01:16:15,920
non-water-based life and so ultimately

2086
01:16:21,750 --> 01:16:19,120
we have to just keep our eyes open

2087
01:16:23,669 --> 01:16:21,760
yes over here um you touched on it a

2088
01:16:24,709 --> 01:16:23,679
little bit but i'm curious why you

2089
01:16:26,709 --> 01:16:24,719
elevate

2090
01:16:28,950 --> 01:16:26,719
human intelligence

2091
01:16:31,510 --> 01:16:28,960
our awareness of what's going on and any

2092
01:16:34,950 --> 01:16:31,520
actions that we may or may not take

2093
01:16:36,790 --> 01:16:34,960
beyond normal biological and evolution

2094
01:16:37,990 --> 01:16:36,800
you know evolutionary forces you know

2095
01:16:40,149 --> 01:16:38,000
what makes

2096
01:16:42,229 --> 01:16:40,159
our intelligence so much more

2097
01:16:44,630 --> 01:16:42,239
interesting to focus on it as something

2098
01:16:46,310 --> 01:16:44,640
other than just a natural process yeah

2099
01:16:47,990 --> 01:16:46,320
well it's a good question i mean and

2100
01:16:49,750 --> 01:16:48,000
it's nice to repeat the question yeah so

2101
01:16:51,669 --> 01:16:49,760
the question is why am i focusing so

2102
01:16:53,189 --> 01:16:51,679
much on human intelligence

2103
01:16:56,070 --> 01:16:53,199
as some

2104
01:16:57,430 --> 01:16:56,080
really interesting and new process as

2105
01:16:59,189 --> 01:16:57,440
opposed to just looking at all the

2106
01:17:01,669 --> 01:16:59,199
different kinds of natural biological

2107
01:17:03,270 --> 01:17:01,679
changes on earth and that you know it's

2108
01:17:06,070 --> 01:17:03,280
i tried to get at that a little bit but

2109
01:17:07,830 --> 01:17:06,080
maybe i didn't to your satisfaction but

2110
01:17:09,830 --> 01:17:07,840
certainly i mean the whole point of

2111
01:17:12,229 --> 01:17:09,840
looking at the anthropocene is that

2112
01:17:13,750 --> 01:17:12,239
something new is happening on earth and

2113
01:17:16,310 --> 01:17:13,760
it's not something subtle it's really

2114
01:17:18,790 --> 01:17:16,320
dramatic earth is in the grip of some

2115
01:17:20,950 --> 01:17:18,800
forces some kind of change however you

2116
01:17:22,870 --> 01:17:20,960
want to describe it that

2117
01:17:25,110 --> 01:17:22,880
something that wasn't happening

2118
01:17:26,870 --> 01:17:25,120
certainly a hundred thousand years ago

2119
01:17:28,709 --> 01:17:26,880
maybe not ten thousand years ago so

2120
01:17:30,709 --> 01:17:28,719
that's very sudden suddenly in a

2121
01:17:32,870 --> 01:17:30,719
geological time scale earth is going

2122
01:17:35,430 --> 01:17:32,880
through this dramatic change so even

2123
01:17:36,709 --> 01:17:35,440
somebody you know if if i were not a

2124
01:17:38,790 --> 01:17:36,719
human

2125
01:17:40,229 --> 01:17:38,800
it's hard to get into that mindset but i

2126
01:17:42,390 --> 01:17:40,239
was just looking at this planet and

2127
01:17:44,229 --> 01:17:42,400
saying oh well here's this one era of

2128
01:17:45,830 --> 01:17:44,239
change you know the asteroids were

2129
01:17:47,510 --> 01:17:45,840
hitting and here's this other era of

2130
01:17:49,110 --> 01:17:47,520
change oxygen went up in the atmosphere

2131
01:17:51,270 --> 01:17:49,120
and now oh here's this other area of

2132
01:17:53,110 --> 01:17:51,280
change that's happening now what is

2133
01:17:55,430 --> 01:17:53,120
responsible for that how can i

2134
01:17:57,750 --> 01:17:55,440
characterize that it's something new and

2135
01:17:59,189 --> 01:17:57,760
different so even on that level i think

2136
01:18:01,110 --> 01:17:59,199
it merits

2137
01:18:03,110 --> 01:18:01,120
a new classification it's not

2138
01:18:04,950 --> 01:18:03,120
necessarily a value judgment i mean it's

2139
01:18:06,870 --> 01:18:04,960
hard to avoid that part of the

2140
01:18:08,709 --> 01:18:06,880
discussion too you could say this is

2141
01:18:10,550 --> 01:18:08,719
horrible you could say this is wonderful

2142
01:18:12,390 --> 01:18:10,560
but it's different it's new and it's

2143
01:18:14,149 --> 01:18:12,400
worth trying to get at what that

2144
01:18:15,430 --> 01:18:14,159
difference is

2145
01:18:17,669 --> 01:18:15,440
over there

2146
01:18:19,590 --> 01:18:17,679
david ravi here um so just

2147
01:18:21,750 --> 01:18:19,600
one comment and one question regarding

2148
01:18:23,510 --> 01:18:21,760
why what we need to look for water water

2149
01:18:25,990 --> 01:18:23,520
is a good polar molecule and it's a good

2150
01:18:28,070 --> 01:18:26,000
solvent which means it can form bonds

2151
01:18:29,990 --> 01:18:28,080
with uh carbon compounds which have you

2152
01:18:31,669 --> 01:18:30,000
know most life hazard

2153
01:18:33,590 --> 01:18:31,679
in it so that's why it's easier it's an

2154
01:18:35,110 --> 01:18:33,600
easier solvent so it's easier to find

2155
01:18:36,790 --> 01:18:35,120
make life i mean that's one of one

2156
01:18:39,750 --> 01:18:36,800
comment i want to make but other comment

2157
01:18:42,229 --> 01:18:39,760
that in one of the slides you showed

2158
01:18:43,910 --> 01:18:42,239
whether we anthropocene is an epoch or

2159
01:18:45,030 --> 01:18:43,920
an event i think it's somewhere in

2160
01:18:47,030 --> 01:18:45,040
between

2161
01:18:47,910 --> 01:18:47,040
for the following reason that the amount

2162
01:18:49,830 --> 01:18:47,920
of

2163
01:18:52,310 --> 01:18:49,840
co2 that we are having

2164
01:18:54,790 --> 01:18:52,320
in the atmosphere will take about 100

2165
01:18:56,149 --> 01:18:54,800
000 years at least to die down so in the

2166
01:18:57,590 --> 01:18:56,159
next hundred thousand years there will

2167
01:19:00,149 --> 01:18:57,600
be at least ten percent of the current

2168
01:19:02,630 --> 01:19:00,159
co2 from the fossil fuel burning so if

2169
01:19:04,790 --> 01:19:02,640
you go there at that time so if it's an

2170
01:19:06,470 --> 01:19:04,800
epoch and even even it's a short life

2171
01:19:08,149 --> 01:19:06,480
period of time an epoch is a long period

2172
01:19:09,750 --> 01:19:08,159
so the anthropocene probably is

2173
01:19:11,510 --> 01:19:09,760
somewhere in between and i don't know

2174
01:19:13,430 --> 01:19:11,520
what to call that actually yeah that's a

2175
01:19:16,550 --> 01:19:13,440
good point by the way the questioner is

2176
01:19:18,790 --> 01:19:16,560
uh ravi koparapu who's one of the the

2177
01:19:20,630 --> 01:19:18,800
brilliant scientists who's here for our

2178
01:19:23,189 --> 01:19:20,640
meeting this week and he's uh he's one

2179
01:19:25,990 --> 01:19:23,199
of the people who's calculated the edges

2180
01:19:28,229 --> 01:19:26,000
of the habitable zone and the disquiet

2181
01:19:29,910 --> 01:19:28,239
his results show us the disquieting

2182
01:19:31,830 --> 01:19:29,920
result that earth is actually sort of

2183
01:19:34,149 --> 01:19:31,840
near the inner edge of the habitable

2184
01:19:36,470 --> 01:19:34,159
zone and might not be that hard to

2185
01:19:38,790 --> 01:19:36,480
someday push into a venus-like state

2186
01:19:41,990 --> 01:19:38,800
anyways so so uh it's not just some

2187
01:19:44,070 --> 01:19:42,000
random person in the in the audience but

2188
01:19:46,070 --> 01:19:44,080
um

2189
01:19:47,350 --> 01:19:46,080
no it's a very good point first of all

2190
01:19:49,510 --> 01:19:47,360
he i don't know if you heard but he

2191
01:19:52,070 --> 01:19:49,520
addressed your question about water a

2192
01:19:53,990 --> 01:19:52,080
little more scientifically than i did

2193
01:19:55,910 --> 01:19:54,000
specifically water has these properties

2194
01:19:58,149 --> 01:19:55,920
it's a polar molecule that interacts

2195
01:19:59,750 --> 01:19:58,159
with organic molecules in a way that

2196
01:20:01,750 --> 01:19:59,760
really facilitates the kind of

2197
01:20:03,030 --> 01:20:01,760
biochemistry that we depend on and

2198
01:20:04,470 --> 01:20:03,040
that's one of the things that makes

2199
01:20:06,310 --> 01:20:04,480
scientists go oh well this is a hard

2200
01:20:08,390 --> 01:20:06,320
thing to duplicate with other molecules

2201
01:20:10,070 --> 01:20:08,400
but whether it's impossible you know

2202
01:20:12,229 --> 01:20:10,080
that's an interesting question but his

2203
01:20:13,189 --> 01:20:12,239
other point is that yes no matter what

2204
01:20:15,110 --> 01:20:13,199
we do

2205
01:20:18,070 --> 01:20:15,120
our perturbation to the earth system is

2206
01:20:20,310 --> 01:20:18,080
already long-lived because the co2 that

2207
01:20:22,790 --> 01:20:20,320
we've put into the atmosphere

2208
01:20:24,630 --> 01:20:22,800
left to its own devices the earth takes

2209
01:20:26,950 --> 01:20:24,640
at least a hundred thousand years to

2210
01:20:29,590 --> 01:20:26,960
kind of suck that co2 back into the

2211
01:20:31,510 --> 01:20:29,600
carbon cycle so no matter what we do

2212
01:20:33,430 --> 01:20:31,520
we've already left in that sense a

2213
01:20:35,830 --> 01:20:33,440
long-term mark on the earth hey i asked

2214
01:20:37,430 --> 01:20:35,840
a related question about that day

2215
01:20:39,750 --> 01:20:37,440
i'm interested

2216
01:20:44,229 --> 01:20:39,760
of course we have global warming we have

2217
01:20:47,430 --> 01:20:44,239
increased the amount of co2 by 1 6.

2218
01:20:49,750 --> 01:20:47,440
now there's all this water vapor a more

2219
01:20:52,229 --> 01:20:49,760
powerful greenhouse gas and all this

2220
01:20:53,750 --> 01:20:52,239
methane if we did away with all the cows

2221
01:20:56,229 --> 01:20:53,760
we might be better off than doing one

2222
01:20:59,189 --> 01:20:56,239
with all the factories but

2223
01:21:00,790 --> 01:20:59,199
i'm wondering how can we say that 1 6

2224
01:21:02,550 --> 01:21:00,800
more co2

2225
01:21:03,350 --> 01:21:02,560
with all this methane

2226
01:21:05,830 --> 01:21:03,360
all

2227
01:21:07,750 --> 01:21:05,840
and please don't think i'm a denier i'm

2228
01:21:09,270 --> 01:21:07,760
not yeah no i mean i i understand your

2229
01:21:11,750 --> 01:21:09,280
question he's saying okay so we've

2230
01:21:14,950 --> 01:21:11,760
increased the co2 by uh

2231
01:21:16,550 --> 01:21:14,960
you know by by a sixth um and but but

2232
01:21:18,470 --> 01:21:16,560
yet there's also all this water and

2233
01:21:20,870 --> 01:21:18,480
methane too so why are we always just

2234
01:21:23,350 --> 01:21:20,880
blame it on co2 well but the answer with

2235
01:21:26,070 --> 01:21:23,360
water is that water is passive

2236
01:21:28,390 --> 01:21:26,080
co2 is something we directly do the

2237
01:21:30,790 --> 01:21:28,400
water responds to the temperature

2238
01:21:33,270 --> 01:21:30,800
so if you add co2 and things heat up

2239
01:21:35,189 --> 01:21:33,280
water evaporates so yeah water is a big

2240
01:21:37,110 --> 01:21:35,199
greenhouse gas but we can't do anything

2241
01:21:39,030 --> 01:21:37,120
about that it actually responds to the

2242
01:21:40,790 --> 01:21:39,040
other temperature changes so it's a

2243
01:21:42,950 --> 01:21:40,800
little bit of a red herring to point out

2244
01:21:44,790 --> 01:21:42,960
that water's such a big greenhouse gas

2245
01:21:47,030 --> 01:21:44,800
it is but that's because it's responding

2246
01:21:48,790 --> 01:21:47,040
to other changes methane is a good point

2247
01:21:51,030 --> 01:21:48,800
and it's something we have to watch i

2248
01:21:52,709 --> 01:21:51,040
mean it's going to be probably hard to

2249
01:21:55,030 --> 01:21:52,719
just do away with the cows and it's not

2250
01:21:58,550 --> 01:21:55,040
just cows it's rice paddies and so we

2251
01:21:59,510 --> 01:21:58,560
depend on these things but and termites

2252
01:22:03,990 --> 01:21:59,520
but

2253
01:22:06,149 --> 01:22:04,000
methane you know in our production of of

2254
01:22:08,229 --> 01:22:06,159
natural gas and our oil mining and stuff

2255
01:22:10,229 --> 01:22:08,239
and methane as you mentioned is

2256
01:22:12,470 --> 01:22:10,239
a potent greenhouse gas so it's our

2257
01:22:14,390 --> 01:22:12,480
responsibility at this point to pay

2258
01:22:17,030 --> 01:22:14,400
attention to all these gases and do what

2259
01:22:18,310 --> 01:22:17,040
we can collectively to try to draw down

2260
01:22:19,910 --> 01:22:18,320
the greenhouse

2261
01:22:21,910 --> 01:22:19,920
effect to the extent that we have

2262
01:22:23,350 --> 01:22:21,920
control over it

2263
01:22:25,270 --> 01:22:23,360
okay i'm going to take privilege as the

2264
01:22:27,590 --> 01:22:25,280
host to ask a question

2265
01:22:29,110 --> 01:22:27,600
um so when we talk about whether or not

2266
01:22:30,390 --> 01:22:29,120
we're going to survive the anthropocene

2267
01:22:31,910 --> 01:22:30,400
whether we're going to be a short-lived

2268
01:22:35,110 --> 01:22:31,920
civilization or a long-lived

2269
01:22:36,149 --> 01:22:35,120
civilization it relies on as you

2270
01:22:37,030 --> 01:22:36,159
mentioned

2271
01:22:39,350 --> 01:22:37,040
us

2272
01:22:41,510 --> 01:22:39,360
becoming globally aware becoming

2273
01:22:43,189 --> 01:22:41,520
globally cooperative you know there was

2274
01:22:45,110 --> 01:22:43,199
a the uh the development of

2275
01:22:46,790 --> 01:22:45,120
multicellular life was uh led to the

2276
01:22:48,950 --> 01:22:46,800
cambrian explosion it shows look

2277
01:22:51,430 --> 01:22:48,960
cooperation is really good

2278
01:22:53,189 --> 01:22:51,440
however the question you know often

2279
01:22:54,870 --> 01:22:53,199
comes down to my mind to the question of

2280
01:22:58,870 --> 01:22:54,880
whether life

2281
01:23:03,590 --> 01:23:01,510
reproduces and uses resources but is

2282
01:23:05,270 --> 01:23:03,600
life inherently selfish

2283
01:23:07,830 --> 01:23:05,280
and can it learn to be globally

2284
01:23:09,990 --> 01:23:07,840
cooperative it's a really good question

2285
01:23:11,750 --> 01:23:10,000
yes life is inherently selfish but there

2286
01:23:13,910 --> 01:23:11,760
are different levels of sort of

2287
01:23:15,830 --> 01:23:13,920
enlightened self-interest

2288
01:23:18,149 --> 01:23:15,840
and an interesting example if you go

2289
01:23:21,189 --> 01:23:18,159
back in the history of life is the

2290
01:23:23,590 --> 01:23:21,199
development of a multicellular organism

2291
01:23:26,629 --> 01:23:23,600
where each of your individual cells in a

2292
01:23:28,390 --> 01:23:26,639
lot of ways is like a bacterium

2293
01:23:29,590 --> 01:23:28,400
and in fact now we've learned that in

2294
01:23:34,390 --> 01:23:29,600
fact

2295
01:23:36,470 --> 01:23:34,400
are independent bacteria many of which

2296
01:23:39,750 --> 01:23:36,480
cooperate and work come in this

2297
01:23:42,550 --> 01:23:39,760
commensural commensal microbiome and you

2298
01:23:44,709 --> 01:23:42,560
know so we are actually examples of

2299
01:23:46,950 --> 01:23:44,719
these big cooperating systems that

2300
01:23:48,950 --> 01:23:46,960
multicellular organisms are and the

2301
01:23:49,990 --> 01:23:48,960
individual cells still have their own

2302
01:23:53,830 --> 01:23:50,000
life

2303
01:23:55,910 --> 01:23:53,840
and do what cells do but the

2304
01:23:57,830 --> 01:23:55,920
in a sense the enlightened self-interest

2305
01:24:01,430 --> 01:23:57,840
the collective self-interest still leads

2306
01:24:03,510 --> 01:24:01,440
to this behavior where the larger whole

2307
01:24:06,149 --> 01:24:03,520
does what it needs to survive

2308
01:24:07,990 --> 01:24:06,159
and one can imagine by analogy

2309
01:24:08,790 --> 01:24:08,000
i mean we've got this problem where as

2310
01:24:10,629 --> 01:24:08,800
you

2311
01:24:12,550 --> 01:24:10,639
rightfully point out globally we have

2312
01:24:14,310 --> 01:24:12,560
the challenge of doing that now one

2313
01:24:16,390 --> 01:24:14,320
doesn't need to be completely utopian

2314
01:24:18,550 --> 01:24:16,400
and think that we're going to create

2315
01:24:21,189 --> 01:24:18,560
this work this magical world of perfect

2316
01:24:22,629 --> 01:24:21,199
harmony but one you know all we need is

2317
01:24:25,110 --> 01:24:22,639
a certain level

2318
01:24:27,590 --> 01:24:25,120
enough global cooperation so that we

2319
01:24:29,510 --> 01:24:27,600
don't do these obviously stupid things

2320
01:24:31,110 --> 01:24:29,520
and one can invoke enlightened

2321
01:24:34,070 --> 01:24:31,120
self-interest

2322
01:24:36,390 --> 01:24:34,080
that it's actually not smart

2323
01:24:37,830 --> 01:24:36,400
ultimately for the chinese to burn so

2324
01:24:39,510 --> 01:24:37,840
much coal that they ruin the global

2325
01:24:40,870 --> 01:24:39,520
climate not because they're doing

2326
01:24:44,229 --> 01:24:40,880
something to us but because they're also

2327
01:24:45,750 --> 01:24:44,239
doing something to themselves and so one

2328
01:24:47,110 --> 01:24:45,760
can imagine

2329
01:24:48,390 --> 01:24:47,120
you know a little more global

2330
01:24:51,430 --> 01:24:48,400
cooperation where in some of these

2331
01:24:53,590 --> 01:24:51,440
obvious ways people don't act

2332
01:24:55,590 --> 01:24:53,600
self-destructively in a way that

2333
01:24:57,510 --> 01:24:55,600
collectively leads to enough enlightened

2334
01:25:00,229 --> 01:24:57,520
self-interest so that we learn to handle

2335
01:25:01,750 --> 01:25:00,239
these technologies i think one can allow

2336
01:25:04,070 --> 01:25:01,760
for human nature in the fact that we

2337
01:25:06,629 --> 01:25:04,080
won't have global cooperation but still

2338
01:25:08,149 --> 01:25:06,639
imagine a world where we have enough so

2339
01:25:12,870 --> 01:25:08,159
that we don't do the obviously stupid

2340
01:25:15,669 --> 01:25:12,880
self-destructive things exactly great

2341
01:25:17,750 --> 01:25:15,679
all right uh it's 9 26 time for everyone

2342
01:25:18,870 --> 01:25:17,760
to go home and get a good night's sleep

2343
01:25:20,470 --> 01:25:18,880
um

2344
01:25:22,950 --> 01:25:20,480
next tuesday night

2345
01:25:25,030 --> 01:25:22,960
body mind key the making of moons some

2346
01:25:26,709 --> 01:25:25,040
amazing saturn images and all sorts of

2347
01:25:28,390 --> 01:25:26,719
other things uh ladies and gentlemen